- Bernstein said Bitcoin’s 54% correction remains milder than previous bear markets, supporting its $150,000 year-end target.
- The firm expects corporate Bitcoin treasuries and U.S. spot ETFs to attract about $10 billion in inflows during 2026.
- Bernstein highlighted U.S. regulatory progress and tokenized real-world assets as key long-term Bitcoin market drivers.
Bernstein has maintained its $150,000 year-end Bitcoin target despite the cryptocurrency falling about 54% from its October 2025 peak near $125,000. According to analyst Gautam Chhugani, the correction remains significantly smaller than previous bear markets, while the research firm continues monitoring capital flows and broader market conditions for further recovery signs.
Bernstein Compares Current Cycle With Past Declines
According to Bernstein, Bitcoin’s current correction has lasted about three quarters since reaching its October 2025 high. However, previous market downturns typically extended between 12 and 15 months.
The research firm noted that earlier cycles erased between 75% and 90% of Bitcoin’s value before reaching a bottom. By comparison, the current decline remains considerably smaller.
Bernstein acknowledged the correction may not have ended. However, the firm said the reduced drawdown reflects structural changes within the Bitcoin market.
Institutional Demand Remains In Focus
The research note also addressed recent concerns surrounding institutional demand. Bernstein estimated corporate Bitcoin treasury companies and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs could attract about $10 billion of inflows during 2026.
That figure compares with roughly $60 billion recorded in 2025. However, the analysts argued recent sentiment has focused heavily on approximately $5.5 billion of ETF outflows from an asset base near $74 billion.
According to Bernstein, those withdrawals, combined with Bitcoin’s price decline, amplified bearish sentiment despite stronger institutional participation than previous cycles.
The report also highlighted Strategy’s purchases during 2026. The company has accumulated about 175,000 BTC, valued at roughly $14 billion, raising its holdings to 847,363 BTC.
Regulation And Tokenization Stay In Focus
Beyond price movements, Bernstein pointed to ongoing regulatory developments in the United States. According to the report, implementation efforts surrounding the GENIUS Act remain an important market development.
The firm also highlighted continued growth in tokenized real-world assets. According to Bernstein, these structural changes carry greater long-term importance than short-term market volatility.
Meanwhile, The Block’s Director of News, Frank Chaparro, noted Bernstein considers its $150,000 year-end Bitcoin target ambitious following the recent market correction. Despite that assessment, the firm continues to maintain the forecast while watching for renewed strength in capital flows.
