- Doctor Profit said Bitcoin’s MA200 weekly retest resembles the 2022 setup that preceded a deeper market decline.
- The analyst maintained short positions and continues targeting the $40,000-$50,000 price range.
- Investors are watching upcoming Fed minutes, jobless claims, and consumer credit data for market direction.
Crypto analyst Doctor Profit said Bitcoin has reached a critical technical level after falling below the weekly 200-week moving average and retesting it from below. In a market update released this week, the analyst compared the setup with 2022, arguing that a reclaim above the MA200 weekly could precede another sharp decline rather than confirm a recovery.
Analyst Compares Current Setup With 2022
According to Doctor Profit, Bitcoin followed a similar path during the 2022 bear market. After losing the MA200 weekly, the cryptocurrency reclaimed the level and closed above it for three consecutive weeks.
However, the analyst said that move attracted bullish traders before Bitcoin later dropped to the $15,000-$16,000 range. He argued that the current retest resembles the same structure and could produce another false breakout.
Doctor Profit added that retail investors often interpret a reclaim of the MA200 weekly as confirmation of a trend reversal. He said market participants could again increase long positions if Bitcoin closes above the indicator.
Short Positions Remain In Place
Building on that outlook, Doctor Profit said he continues holding short positions opened around $120,000 and an average entry of $80,500. He also said he placed additional short orders between $68,000 and $69,000 if Bitcoin revisits that range.
According to the analyst, he does not plan to add new positions below that price zone. Instead, he expects any rally above the MA200 weekly to provide another opportunity before a larger decline.
He also maintained his target for the CBB zone between $40,000 and $50,000. The analyst linked that range to the area where the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF launched.
Fed Events Stay On Market Watch
Meanwhile, Doctor Profit also highlighted several economic events scheduled this week. He pointed to the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the June 16-17 meeting, due on July 8.
The analyst said the minutes could provide more details about the committee’s hawkish discussions after the meeting projected one possible rate hike before the end of 2026. He also listed initial jobless claims on July 9 and consumer credit data on July 8 as additional events he continues to monitor.
