- QCP Capital says Bitcoin’s rally was led by spot demand, with spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting about $2.8 billion across eight sessions.
- Bitcoin futures open interest fell from 646,000 BTC to 588,000 BTC as funding stayed contained, pointing to limited leverage.
- QCP places Bitcoin within the $81,000-$86,000 range as Treasury buybacks and persistent inflation shape the wider market backdrop.
Bitcoin climbed from about $63,500 to above $80,000 as spot buying supported the move, according to QCP Capital. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $2.8 billion in inflows across eight sessions. At the same time, Bitcoin futures open interest fell, while funding stayed contained, pointing to short covering and spot demand during the rally.
Spot Flows Lead Bitcoin’s Move
QCP said Bitcoin briefly traded above $81,000 in the advance. BTC-denominated futures open interest fell from about 646,000 BTC in mid-August to roughly 588,000 BTC. Meanwhile, funding rates remained below levels typically associated with crowded long positions.
Options positioning also changed as Bitcoin moved higher. Call skew increased, while the put-call ratio remained below one ahead of Jackson Hole.
Treasury Plans Meet Sticky Inflation
The wider market backdrop remains tied to U.S. rates and long-term Treasury liquidity. On Aug. 19, the Treasury announced larger liquidity-support buybacks for 10-to-30-year securities. Starting Sept. 9, Treasury plans at least $4 billion per operation.
Previously, those operations had a maximum size of $2 billion. However, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. July core PCE rose 0.2% monthly, while its annual rate remained at 3.3%.
July headline PCE also rose 0.2% monthly and reached 3.7% annually. Markets currently price about a 35% chance of a 25-basis-point September hike. Three policymakers dissented at July’s meeting and preferred a 25-basis-point increase. Fed Chair Warsh was scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole at 10 p.m. SGT.
$81K-$86K Zone
QCP placed Bitcoin within an $81,000 to $86,000 area, with about $83,300 inside that range. Meanwhile, Nvidia reported $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue, up 106% year over year.
Its Data Center revenue reached $89 billion, up 117%. Nvidia guided for about $108 billion in revenue for the next quarter. Nvidia shares later rose about 8.7%, lifting broader technology stocks.
