- Bitcoin gained 225% over three years, but removing its five best days cuts the return to 95%.
- Excluding Bitcoin’s 15 strongest days turns its three-year 225% gain into an 11% loss.
- Nasdaq’s return falls from 109% to 21% without its 15 best days, showing less performance concentration.
Bitcoin gained 225% over three years, outpacing the Nasdaq’s 109%, according to Grayscale. However, Zach Pandl said five trading days drove much of that performance. Removing those days cuts Bitcoin’s return to 95%, while excluding its best 15 days turns the three-year gain into an 11% loss.
Bitcoin’s Strongest Days Drive Returns
Grayscale said Bitcoin’s three-year return reached 225%, compared with 109% for the Nasdaq. Yet the gains were uneven across the period, with several strong sessions carrying a large share of the result.
According to Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, removing Bitcoin’s five best trading days reduces its return to 95%. Excluding the 10 strongest days cuts the gain further to 27%. The difference becomes larger after removing 15 days.
Bitcoin’s three-year return changes from a 225% gain to an 11% loss. Meanwhile, Nasdaq returns showed less concentration. Removing its 15 best trading days reduced its cumulative return from 109% to 21%.
Timing Creates a Separate Challenge
Pandl said the figures highlight the difficulty of timing Bitcoin exposure around its strongest moves. He also pointed to the potential cost of being out of the market during major upside periods. Bitcoin’s five strongest days represented fewer than 0.5% of the trading days in the period.
Yet removing them cut the cumulative return by more than half. Therefore, investors trying to wait for lower volatility or greater clarity could miss some of Bitcoin’s largest moves. Pandl said Bitcoin’s best days cannot be reliably predicted.
Long-Term Exposure Remains the Focus
Grayscale’s analysis places the concentration of Bitcoin’s gains alongside its broader three-year performance. The figures show how removing a small number of sessions changes the overall return sharply.
Pandl described this effect as an “out-of-market” opportunity cost. His analysis said investors can avoid trying to time Bitcoin and instead seek consistent, long-term exposure.
The comparison also shows a wider gap in return concentration. Bitcoin falls to an 11% loss after its best 15 days are removed, while Nasdaq remains up 21%.
