- Bitcoin posts its poorest November since 2019, breaking a strong seasonal trend after years of consistent late-year gains across multiple market cycles.
- Market heatmap shows November turning red despite past double-digit rallies, raising questions about shifting conditions influencing Bitcoin’s usual performance rhythm.
- Cost-basis data reveals Bitcoin falling below the 0.75 quantile, marking a key structural change traders monitor when assessing broader market positioning.
Bitcoin is putting up one of its worst Novembers in years, as far as current market data indicates, sharply deviating from its seasonal strength of the past. This change has brought up new questions regarding shifting market dynamics.
November’s Pattern Breaks After Years of Strong Performance
Bitcoin Worst November Since 2019 appears to be the developing narrative as this month trades in negative territory. Data shared by CryptoSavingExpert shows that November has traditionally produced strong gains, including a 37.29% surge in 2024. That surge added to the month’s history of strong late-year rallies.
The referenced heatmap in the update indicates that November has usually been strong, with gains of double digits consecutively in years like 2023 and 2021. This month, though, is a sharp reversal, as reflected by the chart, showing the poorest performance since the -17.52% drawdown in 2019. The usual cluster of green boxes around November now presents a warning.
This move challenges the long-held market view of November as a reliable point of momentum before December’s often mixed outcome. The expected late-Q4 strength appears to be fading as the month struggles to retain its former trend.
Shift in Seasonal Rhythm Raises Structural Market Questions
The break from November’s usual behavior brings new attention to structural forces shaping the market. Traders who have long relied on seasonal patterns may need to adjust expectations. The tweet suggests that traditional flows have weakened.
Market participants are now assessing whether ETF activity, institutional behavior, or broader macro conditions are contributing to this shift. The weakening of a dependable seasonal trend points toward evolving market participation. For many observers, this moment serves as a reminder that long-standing patterns may not carry the same weight.
The negative performance also draws attention to how Bitcoin reacts in periods of reduced momentum. As November moves closer to conclusion, the final close will determine whether this month becomes a defining signal of changing conditions.
Cost-Basis Metrics Signal Growing Pressure on Current Structure
A separate update from Glassnode adds another layer to the developing market story. According to the tweet, Bitcoin has broken below the 0.75 cost-basis quantile, a level historically associated with bear-market territory. This metric tracks the distribution of realized prices across the supply.
Across prior cycles, holding above this threshold has usually aligned with constructive market structure. Falling below it places renewed pressure on bulls who want to keep broader momentum intact. Regaining this position would be important for restoring confidence.
This decline comes at a moment when Bitcoin’s seasonal rhythm is already shifting, creating a combined signal of current market stress. Whether the asset can reclaim key metrics will determine how traders interpret the remainder of the quarter.
