- Bitcoin death cross charts show past cycles producing strong rallies after major trend resets, with analysts presenting two potential paths for 2025 movements.
- Fear & Greed Index data indicates strong forward returns during deep fear phases, with current sentiment at its lowest point in more than three years.
- Long-term projections compare previous macro declines with a potential 2026 retracement, outlining a structure that resembles earlier multi-year market cycles.
Bitcoin continues to generate intensive market discussion as analysts present contrasting interpretations of current momentum, long-term structure, and sentiment readings. Recent posts from market commentators offer varied perspectives on cycle behavior, forward returns, and potential downside targets.
Death Cross Patterns and Market Structure
Crypto Patel reposted a multi-year comparison suggesting that recurring death cross events have repeatedly aligned with strong macro rallies. His charts reference moves in 2023, 2024, and early 2025, each showing large price increases after the 50-day average crossed below the 200-day average.
One version outlines a 68 percent rise after the recent cross, while another suggests an aggressive rise toward the 159,000 area. The visuals focus on symmetrical moving-average formations that preceded past expansions.
Source Crypto Patel Via X
These charts place the death cross as a broader reset rather than a reversal point, with each example presented as part of a continuing cycle. Patel’s post frames the setup as an early-stage position within potential 2026 momentum, though the figures remain speculative.
Sentiment Metrics and Forward Returns
Max Crypto introduced a heatmap showing Bitcoin’s average performance after the Fear & Greed Index drops below 20. The post states that extreme fear zones align with strong forward returns across multiple time periods.
The current reading of 10 is the lowest in more than three years, placing the market inside that category. The heatmap also presents weaker returns during greed zones, forming a contrast to the behavior observed in negative sentiment phases.
Neutral readings appear to produce moderate but steady gains. According to the data, the strongest six-month return of 68.1 percent occurred when sentiment was neither fearful nor euphoric.
Long-Term Projections and Cycle Drawdowns
Popular Trader Cameron Fous shared a long-range chart comparing past macro-cycle drawdowns with a projected path into 2026. His chart is similar to those observed in 2018 and 2022, each displaying deep retracements from cycle peaks.
The trader is suggesting a possible decline toward the 57,000 to 37,000 area around late 2026.The chart also shows repeated patterns built around sharp declines followed by long rebuilding phases.
This perspective creates a contrast with shorter-term analyses, presenting a longer horizon built around multi-year boom-and-reset behavior.
