- Bitcoin’s SOPR for short-term holders fell below 1 after four months above break-even, indicating renewed losses among speculative market participants.
- Despite Bitcoin’s surge from $60,000 to $125,000, short-term holder SOPR showed descending peaks, missing euphoric retail-driven surges seen in past rallies.
- Market tops historically emerged with SOPR peaks showing extreme greed, yet this rally lacked such behavior, suggesting institutional participation sustained momentum.
Short-term holders return to realizing losses after four months, signaling a cautious turn in Bitcoin’s current market cycle. The shift indicates reduced confidence among speculative investors sensitive to price fluctuations.
Losses Return for Short-Term Holders
According to CryptoQuant’s recent update by @gaah_im, the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for short-term holders, smoothed with a 30-day moving average, has dropped below 1. This level shows that short-term investors are once again selling Bitcoin at a loss after months of profitable transactions.
Such behavior is often interpreted as a temporary retreat by market participants who usually react quickly to price volatility. Short-term holders typically influence momentum in cycles, and their willingness to exit at a loss reflects a change in near-term sentiment.
This development contrasts with the previous four-month stretch when SOPR for these investors stayed consistently above the break-even level. The sudden reversal creates new attention on the strength of current Bitcoin support zones.
Divergence Between Price and SOPR
While Bitcoin’s price climbed sharply from $60,000 to about $125,000 in the past year, the SOPR for short-term holders moved differently. Instead of surging alongside price, the ratio formed descending peaks, missing the euphoric spikes seen in earlier rallies.
In prior cycles, such rapid upward movements were generally matched with SOPR levels reflecting intense greed and strong retail activity. These peaks often marked overheated conditions and signaled nearing cycle exhaustion.
This time around, retail enthusiasm did not show itself, indicating that the continuation of the rally has come from much more steady, and possibly institutional demand. The lack of surging lifts driven by greed has tempered the market activity.
Long-Term Cycle Perspective
Historically, market tops have been confirmed only when SOPR for short-term holders reached zones associated with extreme greed. That scenario has not occurred during this rally, leaving the broader trend intact.
The current phase may instead represent a pause, as some investors take profits or exit amid recent volatility. The larger pattern continues to show strength, with institutional participation sustaining momentum.
If Bitcoin establishes solid support and SOPR rises again above 1, probabilities increase for renewed price expansion. Under such conditions, the market could test new highs before any broader cycle weakening.
