- CryptoQuant’s chart shows retail trading spikes often mark Bitcoin tops, but the recent rally lacks that familiar warning signal.
- The $70K to $110K move shows limited retail action, closely resembling the quiet retail phase before Bitcoin’s peak in late 2021.
- Red triangle markers that historically signaled market tops are missing in the current rally, pointing to lower retail trading involvement.
Retail trading activity has remained subdued during Bitcoin’s recent rally from $70,000 to $110,000, raising questions about market participation. Historical data suggest that Bitcoin tops often coincide with retail trading surges, which are currently absent.
Historical Trends in Retail Participation
Ali, a market observer, posted on X that major Bitcoin peaks have often aligned with spikes in retail activity. He referenced a CryptoQuant chart tracking trading frequency across retail spot and futures markets from 2017 to 2025. The chart categorizes trading behavior into four levels: Neutral, Few Retail, Many Retail, and Too Many Retail. Each phase uses distinct visuals, helping identify trends in retail involvement over time. Red triangles, for example, indicate periods of heightened retail trading.
Across past cycles, Bitcoin’s major local tops—late 2017, mid-2019, early 2021, and early 2024—coincided with retail surges. These moments were typically followed by corrections, as retail entered near peaks rather than early trends. During those times, increased trading by retail participants served as a signal of overheated conditions.
Quiet Retail Phase Mirrors 2021 Setup
The recent climb from $70,000 to $110,000 lacked any strong spike in retail activity. This behavior resembles Bitcoin’s movement in late 2021, when institutional activity led rallies while retail remained relatively passive. The absence of red triangle clusters in the CryptoQuant chart shows that retail participation has yet to reach high levels.
The chart also places dotted rectangles around phases of intense retail action. These visual markers appear around previous euphoric stages. None are present during the current rally, suggesting that broader public involvement is still limited. Instead, current market dynamics suggest that longer-term holders or institutions may be steering the recent price movement.
Retail as a Contrarian Signal
CryptoQuant’s data reveals a consistent pattern: retail tends to become active late in cycles. During accumulation or consolidation periods, trading markers shift to neutral or low-retail activity. These phases often precede strong upward moves, as institutional investors quietly build positions.
Periods dominated by low retail participation have historically led to broader uptrends once sentiment shifts. Therefore, tracking retail behavior can help interpret broader market positioning and identify transition points across bullish and corrective phases.
