- Galaxy Research says only four of thirteen traditional Bitcoin bottom indicators have appeared so far in the current cycle.
- The firm’s base-case scenario projects a Bitcoin bottom between $40,000 and $46,000, with alternative ranges above and below.
- Historical timing patterns suggest a potential cycle low could emerge during the fourth quarter of 2026.
Bitcoin may not have reached its current cycle low, according to a new analysis from Galaxy Research, which examined historical market cycles, on-chain metrics, and timing patterns. Alex Thorn said only four of thirteen traditional bottom indicators have appeared so far, while the current drawdown remains just eight months old, placing a potential cycle bottom closer to late 2026.
Historical Cycle Signals Remain Incomplete
According to Thorn, Galaxy’s study focused exclusively on historical Bitcoin cycles and on-chain data. The report excluded macroeconomic, geopolitical, and regulatory factors.
The analysis found that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle continues to follow historical timing patterns. Previous cycle lows typically arrived 12 to 13 months after a market top. However, the current decline began after Bitcoin peaked in October 2025.
Galaxy noted that only two of eleven major top indicators triggered during the October peak. Notably, the Pi Cycle Top indicator, which identified the previous three market tops, never activated.
Meanwhile, MVRV reached 2.29 during the peak. Previous cycle highs recorded readings between 2.93 and 5.91. According to Thorn, institutional demand continued supporting prices after enthusiasm on-chain weakened.
Why Galaxy Expects A Higher Floor
The report also highlighted a continuing compression trend across Bitcoin cycles. Peak-to-trough declines have gradually narrowed from 85% and 84% to 77%.
At the same time, bottom valuations have steadily increased. Galaxy said this pattern has reduced the gap between extreme overvaluation and undervaluation over successive cycles.
According to the analysis, Bitcoin’s network cost basis currently sits near $53,000. Furthermore, the October 2025 top left the cost basis at 43.7% of the all-time high, above prior cycle levels.
As a result, Galaxy argued that weaker top conditions support a higher potential bottom range than previous bear markets.
Three Bottom Scenarios For Bitcoin
Using current cost-basis data, Galaxy outlined three possible outcomes. The base-case scenario places a Bitcoin bottom between $40,000 and $46,000.
Meanwhile, a deeper washout similar to 2018 and 2022 could push prices into a $30,000 to $39,000 range. However, a shallow decline would place the bottom between $51,000 and $54,000.
Galaxy also noted that stronger bottom signals remain absent. Price has not fallen below aggregate cost basis, holders have not realized widespread losses, and a major capitulation event has not occurred.
According to Thorn, if historical timing remains intact, the most likely window for a Bitcoin cycle low opens during the fourth quarter of 2026.
