- Galaxy Research cut the CLARITY Act’s 2026 passage odds to 50-50 amid Senate scheduling uncertainty.
- Unresolved negotiations over ethics, regulatory language, and amendments continue to delay Senate action.
- Competing legislative priorities are reducing available floor time before the August congressional recess.
Galaxy Research has lowered its estimate for CLARITY Act passage in 2026 as Senate time becomes limited. Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, said the bill still could receive a July vote. However, reaching the required 60 votes remains uncertain due to delays and competing legislative priorities.
Senate Schedule Creates New Pressure
According to Alex Thorn, Galaxy reduced its passage odds from 60% to 50-50. The change followed a tighter Senate calendar and limited movement on negotiations.
The CLARITY Act remains on the Senate Legislative Calendar as item No. 423. It has stayed there since June 1 after the Senate Banking Committee approved it 15-9 on May 14.
However, Senate leaders have not scheduled a floor vote or announced a motion to proceed. Staff from the Banking and Agriculture committees continue discussions on combining their versions of the bill.
Unresolved Issues Remain In Negotiations
Thorn reported that several key matters remain open during negotiations. Ethics concerns continue to affect discussions, with Senators Gallego and Booker seeking enforceable standards.
The Van Hollen conflict-of-interest amendment failed in committee by an 11-13 vote. Meanwhile, law enforcement concerns remain focused on developer-protection language in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act provisions.
Notably, the bill’s supporters have not released combined legislative text. They also have not announced timing for possible Senate consideration.
Competing Bills Take Senate Floor Space
The Senate calendar has faced additional pressure from other legislative priorities. On June 24, President Trump canceled the planned signing of a bipartisan housing bill.
He said he would not sign the housing measure until Congress passes the SAVE Act. Majority Leader Thune has said the SAVE Act does not currently have enough Senate support.
Additionally, lawmakers still need to address FISA reauthorization and the FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act. Thorn said these issues continue competing for limited floor time before the August recess.
He noted that a July floor commitment could raise the bill’s passage chances. However, continued delays into mid-July could reduce the likelihood of a 2026 vote.
