- MVRV momentum dipped to the 160-day average, echoing the drop that sent ETH from $3,300 to $1,400.
- Ali links readings under the moving average to past multi-month retracements and investor losses.
- Merlijn notes a monthly bullish pennant he says resembles pre-breakout structures from earlier cycles.
Ethereum has entered a sensitive phase after a key on-chain gauge turned negative again, reviving comparisons to one of its steepest declines this cycle. Analyst Ali noted that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Momentum indicator has printed a death cross, the same setup that preceded a slide from $3,300 to $1,400 earlier in the year. This comes as ETH trades near levels where previous momentum changes led to extended drops, placing the focus back on valuation trends and investor behavior.
Momentum Data
Recent readings show Ethereum’s MVRV ratio retreating toward 1.6, the area that aligns with its 160-day moving average. That level marked the breakdown point in early 2025, when negative momentum held from January to May and price dropped into the $1,500–$1,800 range.
During that phase, investors faced widespread unrealized losses and on-chain activity contracted. The movement also followed a period in late 2024 when ETH traded around $3,200–$3,500 with an MVRV ratio near 2.0, indicating aggressive pricing and higher risk of reversal.
The rebound from mid-2025 brought renewed profitability as momentum flipped positive and ETH climbed back above $2,800. Notably, the ratio moved toward 2.0 again together with accumulation. However, the latest dip back to the moving average level has changed outlook to whether renewed negative pressure could reemerge if the indicator falls further.
Key Levels and Reaction Zones
Ali pointed to past behavior where momentum below the 160-day average aligned with deeper retracement phases. Current positioning near the same level has drawn comparisons to previous dips.
Moves above 1.5 have often aligned with moderate profitability, while readings over 2.0 have come ahead of local peaks. The recent shift near 1.6 suggests traders are monitoring whether Ethereum holds above critical supports or repeats earlier corrections tied to sentiment resets.
The broader structure also shows declining strength after months of steady recovery. Each previous crossover produced either extended upside or a multi-month reversal, making the next move in the MVRV gauge a focal point for analysts tracking cyclical behavior.
Monthly Pattern and Broader Cycle
Alongside on-chain signals, analyst Merlijn described a separate technical structure forming on higher timeframes. He pointed to what he called the strongest setup since 2017, citing a bullish pennant.
According to him, the pattern aligns with historic continuation phases that preceded fast expansions in previous cycles. His assessment contrasts with the near-term caution tied to momentum data, creating a split narrative between structural optimism and valuation pressure.
