- Ethereum’s 2025 structure closely reflects its 2016–2017 range-bound setup, including a fakeout and rounded base before a breakout.
- Institutional demand, ETH spot ETFs, and on-chain fundamentals are now driving accumulation and strengthening Ethereum’s current macro outlook.
- The path to $10,000 ETH is supported by shrinking supply, strong technical structure, and renewed global risk-on market sentiment.
Ethereum’s present market structure looks to be echoing an occurrence seen in 2016-2017 that has sparked interest among investors. The additional factor of an institutional presence and a greater broader adoption could be two substantial differences that drive future momentum.
Chart Comparison Signals Repeating Market Structure
A chart shared by analyst Merlijn The Trader shows Ethereum’s 2024–2025 setup almost exactly mirrors its 2016–2017 cycle. The left side of the chart displays ETH’s historical price behavior: range-bound movement, repeated resistance at the top, and fake breakdowns at the bottom. These moves created a rounded base, followed by a sharp vertical rally.
According to the chart, Ethereum’s current price action is unfolding in nearly the same manner. It remains confined within a similar tight range, with resistance repeatedly tested and a deep, false breakdown already observed. A similar rounded base is forming, suggesting the asset is building momentum.
The similarity here is not only technical, but psychological and reflects how investors behave during previous accumulation phases.
Market Conditions Have Evolved Since 2016
Unlike 2016, Ethereum in 2025 operates in a drastically different environment. In 2016, the market was largely retail-driven and speculative. There were no institutional players, no regulatory frameworks for crypto ETFs, and little infrastructure for large-scale investment.
In contrast, the current cycle is supported by expanding institutional interest. Spot ETH ETFs are now launching, institutions are buying actively, and Ethereum’s ecosystem has matured. Layer 2 networks, restaking protocols, and real-world asset integration are contributing to Ethereum’s use case.
More importantly, Ethereum’s supply continues to shrink due to staking and the burn mechanism, creating a deflationary setup. These factors could accelerate any upside move if the price breaks above the current range.
$10,000 Target Seen as a Roadmap, Not Speculation
Merlijn The Trader suggests that if the pattern holds, Ethereum may be poised for a parabolic move similar to 2017. The addition of macro tailwinds such as a cooling inflation environment and renewed risk appetite strengthens the case for bullish continuation.
The analyst emphasizes that institutional traders don’t follow hype—they act early based on macro narratives. With infrastructure now in place and Wall Street participation growing, Ethereum’s path to $10,000 is being discussed not as speculation, but as part of a broader roadmap.
