- Bitcoin’s on-chain momentum ratio stands at 0.8, suggesting the market is entering an early rally phase, similar to past cycles.
- If Bitcoin’s momentum ratio crosses 1.0, analysts forecast prices could rise to $150K–$175K, mirroring previous bull cycles.
- If Bitcoin’s momentum drops to 0.75, a price correction could push the cryptocurrency back to the $70K–$85K range, analysts warn.
Bitcoin is entering a potential rally zone, with on-chain momentum data signaling the beginning of a critical market phase. Current metrics suggest the market could shift in three directions over the next six months.
Bitcoin On-Chain Momentum Enters Rally Zone
CryptoQuant’s latest tweet by AxelAdlerJr reveals that Bitcoin’s on-chain momentum ratio is around 0.8 or 80%, placing it in what analysts call the “start” of a rally zone. Historically, this level has preceded market upswings.
As noted by CryptoQuant, when this ratio crosses above 1.0 and settles there, primary metrics such as NUPL and MVRV will hold out to confirm a bullish momentum. This case would be similar to 2017 and 2021 where price action exhibited identical trends. Bitcoin would then potentially hit between $150,000 and $175,000 in such a bullish scenario.
The optimistic scenario is grounded in historical price cycles where momentum surges led to new highs. Analysts believe that crossing the 1.0 threshold is a trigger for institutional and retail confidence.
Range-Bound Movement Possible if Ratio Holds Steady
In a more neutral case, the ratio remains between 0.8 and 1.0. This range suggests a phase of consolidation. Price would likely stay within the $90,000 to $110,000 corridor.
During such consolidation periods, investors often maintain their current exposure without making large new entries. Market participants could interpret this as a wait-and-see approach, with long-term holders remaining firm.
This scenario would also mean that the market is neither strongly bullish nor entering a sell-off. It presents a stable environment where gradual accumulation might occur without sharp volatility.
Correction Still Possible if Ratio Fails to Hold
The third scenario points to a correction if the momentum ratio falls near 0.75. In this case, short-term holders may begin to realize profits, leading to a possible decline in price.
A drop to $70,000–$85,000 could occur if confidence fades. Although this scenario appears less likely due to a prior correction, it remains a potential outcome if bearish momentum resurfaces.
While the current ratio suggests upward potential, the market remains sensitive to changes in investor behavior. CryptoQuant’s three-path forecast offers a clear framework for tracking Bitcoin’s next move.
