- Short-Term Holder MVRV is approaching 1 after exceeding 1.18 in September, indicating that recent buyers are nearing their average purchase price.
- Bitcoin recovered to approximately $77,961 on November 1 after defending the 76,000–77,000 support zone.
- RSI and MACD show improving short-term momentum, but resistance at $78,000, $80,000 and $82,000 remains ahead of stronger bullish confirmation.
Bitcoin is testing short-term investor conviction near $76,000 as recent selling reduces profits among holders who bought during its rally. Analyst Darkfost reported that the Short-Term Holder MVRV is approaching 1, following a September peak above 1.18. Meanwhile, Bitcoin traded near $77,961 on November 1, showing early recovery signs.
STH MVRV Approaches Neutral as Profits Shrink
Darkfost said short-term holders recorded their highest profits in over a year as Bitcoin advanced. Their average cost basis has climbed from approximately $67,500 in mid-August to around $76,000.
The STH MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market value with the realized value of recently acquired coins. Readings above 1 indicate profits, while values below 1 indicate losses. Notably, the indicator exceeded 1.18 in late September, reaching its highest level since July 2025.
However, its latest movement toward 1 shows that short-term holders are approaching their average purchase price. Darkfost said this level could trigger additional buying or further selling, depending on investor conviction.
Bitcoin Recovers Toward $78K After Recent Decline
The four-hour Binance chart shows Bitcoin falling from approximately $86,000 in early October. Selling intensified around October 30, pushing BTC below $80,000 and briefly toward $76,000. However, buyers have since defended the 76,000–77,000 region.
Bitcoin reached $77,961.14 on November 1, gaining $149.18, or 0.19%, on the latest candle. The RSI climbed to 44.03, moving above its average of 37.00. Nevertheless, it remains below 50, leaving stronger bullish confirmation outstanding.
MACD Shows Early Recovery Signals
The MACD line reached -685.41, above the signal line at -768.79. Meanwhile, its histogram turned positive at 83.38, indicating improving short-term momentum. However, both lines remain below zero.
Bitcoin faces initial resistance around $78,000, followed by $80,000 and $82,000. A decline below $76,000 could expose $74,000. Darkfost said it remains unclear whether short-term holders will buy more or capitulate.
