- Long-term Bitcoin whales sold 500,000 BTC worth over $50 billion, shifting market control to institutional buyers over the past year.
- Institutions including ETFs and asset managers absorbed nearly 900,000 BTC, now controlling 25% of the entire circulating Bitcoin supply.
- Bitcoin volatility dropped to a two-year low, signaling its transition from speculative trade to a stable asset held by large institutions.
Bitcoin is undergoing a silent but fundamental shift in market control. Over the past year, early whales have sold over 500,000 BTC—valued at more than $50 billion—while institutional investors have absorbed nearly 900,000 BTC, signaling a major transition in ownership dynamics.
A Historic Transfer of Supply from Whales to Institutions
Data compiled by 10x Research reveals that long-time Bitcoin holders—ranging from miners to anonymous early adopters—have been steadily reducing their positions. This selling pressure has been largely offset by demand from institutional players, including U.S. exchange-traded funds, corporate treasuries, and asset managers.
Institutional holdings now amount to around 4.8 million BTC, which is roughly 25% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. These figures closely align with Bloomberg’s reporting that early whales offloaded over half a million BTC in the last 12 months—virtually matching the total net inflows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs since their approval.
Edward Chin, co-founder of Parataxis Capital, observed, “What we’re seeing is a churning in the base.” He added that many whales are not simply selling on the open market but are converting their BTC into equity exposure. “A less covered driver and potential reason for the churn and increasing network activity seems to be driven by whales converting their BTC into equity exposure through in-kind contributions of BTC into financing transactions tied to the public markets,” Chin said.
Volatility Drops as Bitcoin Finds a New Identity
While this structural shift continues to evolve, Bitcoin’s market dynamics are evolving too. One commonly used indicator of price variability, Deribit’s BTC Volatility Index, recently dropped to its lowest level in the past two years. This shows how institutional demand may be tempering Bitcoin’s traditional volatility.
Rob Strebel, head of relationship management at DRW, commented, “Crypto is becoming less of an outlier and more established as a legitimate asset class.” He also noted, “Alongside that shift, we expect to see a compression in volatility.”
These developments are altering Bitcoin’s investment appeal. Once known for aggressive price rallies, the asset is increasingly being positioned as a long-term holding. Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, remarked, “Bitcoin is probably more like boring dividend stock over time. On average it goes higher every year, but by less and less amount. It becomes more of an attractive retirement asset.”
Questions Over Market Stability and Future Trajectory
While institutional inflows have so far absorbed whale selling, the balance remains delicate. Historical patterns suggest the market remains vulnerable to disruption if inflows slow down while selling resumes. According to 10x Research, outflows of just 2% in 2018 and 9% in 2022 triggered steep Bitcoin price declines of 74% and 64%, respectively.
Hilary Allen, a law professor and long-time crypto skeptic, warned, “The goal for a long time has always been to make Bitcoin a palatable asset for institutional investors to provide exit liquidity in volume so the whales could cash out.”
Despite this concern, some in the industry maintain a more resilient outlook. Fred Thiel, CEO of MARA Holdings Inc., explained, “We are nearing a point where the market is hitting its peak. My personal belief, however, is we are in a very different market dynamic today.” His company has yet to sell any of its Bitcoin holdings.
Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, concluded, “This can go on for a long time—years. It’s more of a slow grind, where Bitcoin becomes more of a 10%-20% asset. The nature of Bitcoin really changes.”
As Bitcoin continues to trade below its all-time high near $110,000, the quiet handoff from whales to institutions is redefining its market role. What once was a speculative asset now appears to be evolving into a measured, strategic allocation for traditional finance.
