- Coin Days Destroyed reached an 18-month high, showing long-term holders are selling into strength while new speculative participants enter Bitcoin.
- Active Bitcoin addresses dropped to an 11-month low, revealing weak network adoption and slowing retail engagement despite the asset’s price surge.
- Transaction Count surged to yearly highs but was fueled by low-quality speculative activity from Runes, not meaningful economic activity or adoption.
Bitcoin’s Bearish Divergence has emerged as on-chain data shows a concerning disconnect between price action and underlying network fundamentals, despite the asset hovering near record highs of around $115,000.
Long-Term Holders Reduce Exposure
Recent metrics point to a sharp rise in the 30-day moving average of Coin Days Destroyed (CDD). This measure tracks movements of long-held coins and is widely viewed as a reflection of long-term holder behavior. The current surge marks the highest reading in 18 months, suggesting experienced investors are distributing holdings.
This pattern often surfaces when prices reach peak levels and seasoned market participants take profits. The current trend indicates that “smart money” is offloading Bitcoin into market strength, transferring coins to new, less experienced entrants. The shift represents a transfer of ownership from those with long-term conviction to speculative buyers chasing momentum.
Such activity is rarely observed in the early stages of a cycle. Instead, it usually coincides with overheated markets where optimism drives valuation higher while long-term players quietly exit. This movement now adds pressure to the overall stability of the current rally.
Declining Network Adoption
Parallel to the rise in CDD, Active Addresses on the Bitcoin network have declined to an 11-month low. Active Addresses are often used as a proxy for network adoption, indicating how many users are participating in transactions. A reduction here suggests weaker retail engagement and fewer new entrants.
Sustained growth in addresses is generally required for a robust bull market. Lower participation levels show that retail users are not matching the enthusiasm of price action. This disconnect indicates that adoption is stagnating even as the market pushes toward higher valuations.
The slowdown in activity challenges the durability of the rally. Without consistent growth in new users, the price increase appears increasingly dependent on speculation rather than underlying expansion of the network base.
Speculative Transaction Activity
Transaction Count has also surged to its highest point this year. At first glance, increased activity could indicate stronger utility and broader economic exchange. However, closer examination shows the growth is largely driven by speculative behavior.
Much of the rise is attributed to low-quality transactions linked to protocols such as Runes. These activities create congestion on the blockchain without contributing meaningful value transfer. The low average transaction size confirms this shift toward speculative froth.
As a result, the elevated Transaction Count does not represent organic growth but rather speculative use that inflates network load. This pattern is often associated with overheated market phases, where enthusiasm fuels transactional spikes unrelated to genuine adoption or utility.
