- The return of True MVRV to positive territory shows most coins bought in the past year are now held in profit.
- Long-term holders accumulated over 254,000 BTC since the last low, signaling confidence and a continued bullish structure.
- A bullish divergence on the Money Flow Index indicates quiet accumulation and positions the market for a potential upside move.
Bitcoin on-chain data is showing a stronger market foundation, with metrics pointing to rising holder confidence and buying activity.
True MVRV Turns Positive as Panic Selling Declines
True MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), a key valuation metric, has returned to positive territory. Axel Adler Jr reported that the average purchase price of coins acquired over the past year is now below Bitcoin’s current market price. This indicates that many recent buyers are in profit and no longer feel pressured to sell at a loss.
This shift reduces sell-side pressure and suggests a maturing phase in the market cycle. With panic sellers exiting and more holders seeing gains, confidence is recovering. The return to positive MVRV territory often coincides with the early stages of sustainable price growth, as profit-taking is delayed in favor of long-term value accumulation.
This change typically marks the start of a recovery phase, where stronger hands hold their positions and wait for better valuations.
On-Chain Divergences Point to Upside Potential
Additional momentum may be forming beneath the surface. Mister Crypto pointed to a bullish divergence on the Money Flow Index (MFI), a tool used to assess buying and selling pressure. A hidden bullish divergence suggests that accumulation is occurring even as prices remain steady or consolidate.
Such divergences often precede breakouts, especially when other indicators confirm the underlying strength. The combination of price stability and increasing inflow signals readiness for a market shift. While timing remains uncertain, the structure aligns with potential upward movement in the near term.
Traders may continue watching this divergence closely, especially as sentiment improves alongside stronger on-chain data.
Long-Term Holders Increase Bitcoin Exposure
Long-term holder behavior supports the current recovery structure. According to Glassnode , over 254,000 BTC have now aged beyond 155 days since the recent market low. Many of these coins were bought above $95,000, signaling long-term conviction.
Spending activity among long-term holders remains low, suggesting reduced interest in de-risking at present levels. These holders continue to accumulate rather than distribute, reflecting renewed confidence in Bitcoin’s longer-term trajectory.
The sustained holding pattern adds weight to the current trend and supports the case for continued recovery.
