- Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio slipped below zero, showing average holders at a loss, historically signaling undervaluation zones and potential recovery phases.
- Whale wallets holding 1K–10K BTC accumulated 56,372 BTC since late August, reinforcing strong conviction in the ongoing market structure.
- Exchange reserves dropped by over 31,000 BTC in four weeks, signaling reduced supply pressure and conditions favoring stronger upward market movement.
Bitcoin’s pullback of -8.8% from its all-time high has raised questions about the strength of its ongoing trend. Traders remain cautious, with on-chain indicators now offering measurable signals about where the next decisive move could unfold.
MVRV Ratio Turns Negative
The 30-day average MVRV ratio has recently moved below zero for the first time since early September. This indicates that the average Bitcoin holder is holding coins at a loss. Historically, such conditions have marked undervaluation zones where risk-adjusted opportunities begin to form.
During past cycles, negative MVRV levels preceded recoveries as price pressure eased and patient buyers returned. This condition has consistently aligned with favorable entry points in volatile markets. It does not eliminate further corrections but indicates that market participants are approaching a historically constructive zone.
MVRV turning negative reduces short-term speculative pressure and often signals stronger support levels. As losses dominate, forced sellers exit positions, leaving longer-term investors to stabilize the price. This development is being closely monitored as traders consider accumulation strategies.
Whale Activity and Value Bands
On-chain data from CryptoQuant’s Exchange Inflow Value Bands shows wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC remain active. Despite recent price volatility, these entities continue adding coins, maintaining steady inflows. This behavior reflects confidence among larger holders.
According to Santiment, whales have added 56,372 BTC since late August, reinforcing the narrative of conviction-driven accumulation. Large-scale purchasing typically reduces the chances of sustained downside moves by creating deeper liquidity support. The presence of consistent inflows also aligns with the stabilization of market sentiment.
This pattern of buying the dip suggests that whales are preparing for extended positioning. Such strategies are often seen during transitional phases, where strong hands accumulate while short-term holders reduce exposure. The consistency of these inflows supports the argument for building a stronger base.
Exchange Reserves Declining
Across exchanges, reserves have continued to decline, with over 31,000 BTC withdrawn in the past four weeks. This extends a longer trend of coins moving off exchanges, pointing to reduced immediate selling pressure. Lower reserves typically tighten available supply.
The steady reduction in reserves means fewer coins are readily accessible for liquidation. This behavior often corresponds with accumulation phases where participants secure assets in private storage. It also creates conditions for a potential supply squeeze when demand strengthens.
Market analysts note that this shift provides a constructive backdrop for recovery. While short-term volatility remains possible, reduced reserves combined with whale accumulation form a stabilizing foundation. These conditions support the argument that the market is preparing for the next upward phase.
