- Bitcoin’s 3–6 month holder cost basis fell below the 1–2 year average, a pattern seen during previous market bottoms.
- Glassnode says Bitcoin seller exhaustion remains below past bear-market levels, leaving the bottom unconfirmed.
- Miners now hold 1.19 million BTC, down from 1.44 million in 2019 as weaker mining economics drive reserve reductions.
Bitcoin is showing historical bottom indicators, but analysts say selling pressure has not fully faded. Doctor Profit points to a crossover in Bitcoin’s Realized Price by Age, while Glassnode says seller exhaustion remains below past bear-market levels. Meanwhile, miners continue reducing BTC reserves as mining economics change.
Historic Cost-Basis Crossover Returns
According to Doctor Profit, the 3–6 month holder cost basis crossed below the 1–2 year holder average. The same crossover appeared during bottom phases in 2015, 2019 and 2022.
The analyst said newer buyers likely sold at losses before coins moved toward longer-term holders. Bitcoin now trades below both groups’ average cost basis, according to the indicator. However, Doctor Profit noted that previous crossovers did not trigger immediate reversals.
Bitcoin instead moved sideways for months while the market formed a base. The analyst said he has bought Bitcoin between $54,000 and $64,000 for several weeks. He described the current phase as a possible bear-market bottom and accumulation period.
Glassnode Says Selling Has Further To Go
Glassnode also reported weaker selling pressure, but stopped short of confirming a historical bottom. Its Seller Exhaustion Constant over 30 days has not reached levels seen during previous Bitcoin bear markets.
According to Glassnode, sellers appear increasingly exhausted, although demand remains weak. The firm said it continues monitoring whether selling activity stalls further. That leaves seller exhaustion as an observed trend without confirmation from the historical indicator.
Miners Keep Cutting Bitcoin Reserves
Miner holdings provide another measure of selling pressure. Analyst Darkfost said miners held 1.44 million BTC in November 2019, compared with 1.19 million currently. He said miners have reduced reserves because of lower rewards following Bitcoin halvings.
Greater market liquidity has also made it easier for miners to sell BTC needed to fund operations. Notably, some large mining pools are redirecting computing power toward AI as Bitcoin mining becomes less profitable.
Darkfost said this shift has contributed to recent miner selling, including activity involving Mara. He added that miners’ selling power is diminishing as their BTC reserves continue to shrink.
