- Binance volatility maps show Bitcoin confined between a $107K downside liquidation pool and an upside cluster near $118K–$122K this week.
- CME futures positioning in October and November contracts reflects hedges, while options open interest rises with balanced call and put activity.
- Novaque Research notes that labor strength and sticky inflation could pressure Bitcoin lower, while softer data may trigger an upside squeeze.
Bitcoin continues to be stuck in a tight range around $112,000 – $113,000, since traders are waiting for important U.S. economic data released later this week. The placement of the market suggests that volatility may expand substantially with new data.
Bitcoin Range Defined by Binance Data
Binance volatility signals show Bitcoin capped between a $107,000 downside liquidation pool and an upside cluster at $118,000–$122,000. According to Novaque Research, this range represents investor caution before Thursday’s jobless claims, GDP, and durable goods orders.
On-chain and derivatives positioning confirm the stall. Binance funding rates have shifted toward neutral and negative territory, indicating that many leveraged longs have already reduced risk. Liquidation maps outline stop zones at both ends, suggesting the first move could trigger forced liquidations rather than establish a new trend.
Institutional positioning mirrors this behavior. CME futures open interest is concentrated in October and November contracts, reflecting hedges against uncertainty in the macroeconomic path. Meanwhile, options markets are pricing volatility without choosing direction.
Long Gamma Effect and Market Stability
CryptoQuant cited Novaque Research in noting that Binance traders and institutional investors are preparing for either outcome. A large portion of options open interest has been established in both calls and puts. This activity leaves dealers long gamma, a position that encourages hedging in both directions.
When dealers are long gamma, they typically sell into market strength and buy into weakness. This dynamic helps keep Bitcoin prices within a range, as opposing hedging activity offsets directional pressure. The effect remains in place until macroeconomic data provide a shock strong enough to shift the balance.
For now, this hedging activity is helping keep Bitcoin anchored near current levels. Traders expect the eventual breakout to be driven not by sentiment but by incoming economic indicators.
U.S. Economic Calendar Holds the Key
Attention now turns to Thursday’s economic releases, followed by Friday’s Core PCE and consumer spending data. These figures are widely tracked as signals of labor strength and inflation persistence.
Novaque Research emphasized that hotter labor data and sticky inflation could pressure Bitcoin toward the $107,000 zone. Softer readings may instead trigger a squeeze through $118,000–$122,000, targeting the upper liquidation cluster.
Until then, market participants anticipate limited movement. Bitcoin is currently trading not on the data itself but on the setup surrounding it. As volatility remains contained, traders and institutions are preparing for a repricing event once the data becomes available.
