- Bitcoin dominance has reversed from a seven-year resistance, historically preceding multi-month rallies in large-cap, mid-cap, and low-cap altcoins.
- The monthly MACD bearish cross on BTC dominance is the first since 2021, a year marked by rapid altcoin market cap expansion.
- Analysts project potential 5x–50x gains across altcoin categories as capital rotation mirrors past market cycles following dominance reversals.
Bitcoin dominance has recorded its first monthly MACD bearish cross in four years, a move historically linked to major altcoin rallies. Market analysts are watching closely as technical conditions align with previous altseason triggers.
Historical BTC Dominance Reversals
A tweet by market analyst Gordon notes Bitcoin dominance is reversing after peaking at a long-term resistance trendline. This resistance level has stopped BTC dominance advances three times in the past seven years. In 2017, BTC dominance fell by around 63%, sparking 50x–100x gains in altcoins. In 2021, dominance dropped by roughly 47%, fueling a 20x–50x surge in alternative cryptocurrencies. Current data shows dominance has already declined about 40% from its recent peak.
Historical patterns suggest that each rejection from this macro resistance has triggered rapid capital rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins. The present setup mirrors these earlier breakdowns, with dominance rolling over in a similar fashion. Analysts point to this as a potential early stage of a multi-month altcoin cycle.
Market participants often look at BTC dominance trends as a measure for risk appetite. A sustained decline to 40% indicates traders are moving toward a higher risk with the hope of realizing larger percentage gains in their portfolios.
MACD Bearish Cross Signals Shift
The monthly MACD indicator for Bitcoin dominance has now crossed bearishly, marking the first such occurrence since early 2021. This technical crossover preceded four months of rapid altcoin market cap expansion in the last cycle. During that period, large-cap assets such as ETH, ADA, and SOL appreciated by around 10x, while mid- and low-cap tokens recorded substantially higher multiples.
This time, market momentum appears more extended than in previous cycles. Bitcoin dominance maintained higher levels for a longer duration, potentially creating greater selling pressure as traders reposition into alternative assets. The MACD histogram is now turning red, reflecting an emerging downtrend in dominance.
For many technical traders, the MACD bearish cross is viewed as a timing signal for potential capital rotation. When combined with the rejection from long-term dominance resistance, the probability of an altcoin-led market phase increases.
Rotation Outlook for Crypto Assets
Analysts project varied potential returns depending on asset class. Large-cap altcoins such as ETH, SOL, AVAX, and LINK could target 5x–10x gains. Mid-cap tokens like LDO, RNDR, and AR may see 10x–30x moves, while select low-cap projects could achieve higher multiples, though at increased risk.
Historically, altseasons have been fast-moving, with price surges occurring within a concentrated timeframe. Market watchers stress that timing entries and exits is essential during these phases. The macro technical setup currently resembles conditions that preceded the last two altcoin cycles.
Gordon’s commentary frames the present moment as a rare occurrence, typically appearing once every three to four years. The combination of dominance reversal and monthly MACD crossover has, in the past, preceded extended altcoin market rallies. Traders are now observing whether 2025 will follow the established pattern.
