- CryptoCon’s chart using halving theory projects altseason in 2025, mirroring post-halving surges observed in 2017 and 2021.
- Altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin since March 2024, raising questions about the timing and completion of the current market cycle.
- Rising global tensions and persistent fear-driven narratives have continued to suppress sentiment, preventing an early start to altseason momentum.
Altseason is viewed as a key indicator of a complete Bitcoin market cycle. However, its prolonged absence raises questions about the current stage of the crypto bull market. Despite six months of upward Bitcoin price action, altcoins have continued to lag significantly behind.
Altcoins Struggle as Bitcoin Dominance Persists
According to CryptoCon, Bitcoin’s recent halving did trigger a rally, but altcoins have not followed the same trajectory. Most altcoins have performed relatively poorly since March 2024, challenging Bitcoin in the price as well as market shares. Nevertheless, altcoins are not experiencing a shift in favor despite the recorded historical patterns.
Bitcoin dominance remains high, keeping pressure on alternative cryptocurrencies. CryptoCon noted on X, “Altcoins continue to be beaten and battered against Bitcoin,” emphasizing that a true altseason has not begun. This divergence from past halving cycles is now a primary point of analysis for market observers.
The longer altcoins remain suppressed, the more questions arise about whether the current cycle resembles previous bullish phases or marks a deviation. Investors expecting altcoin rallies have seen little confirmation that such a phase is underway.
Halving Cycle Analysis Suggests Altseason May Be Delayed
CryptoCon shared a chart based on the Halving Cycles Theory and sine wave patterns. This model visualizes emotional and structural phases of market cycles tied to Bitcoin’s halving events. Historically, each halving preceded a strong Bitcoin rally, followed by a drop in dominance and a surge in altcoin performance.
It seems that the present cycle has mimicked the original trend in appreciation of Bitcoin. The lack of another altseason though, shows that the cycle is not yet finished. CryptoCon noted that the sine wave analysis predicts an altseason in 2025, similar to the trend of 2017 and 2021.
This means that the altcoin rallies can potentially materialize, however, these may not be coming as early as anticipated owing to the wider macro economic fears or changes in sentiments. As long as there is no destruction of the Bitcoin dominance, the growth of altcoins is limited.
Market Sentiment Remains Vulnerable Amid Global Tensions
While technical patterns suggest a possible altseason, external factors continue to suppress broader market enthusiasm. Rising geopolitical tensions have introduced uncertainty into the market, reducing risk appetite among investors. CryptoCon noted that fear-driven narratives act as a “hammer to sentiment,” especially when prices show little movement.
As Bitcoin dominance remains high and altcoins struggle, market participants are watching closely for any technical or fundamental signs that could mark the beginning of a true altseason.
