- Glassnode says conviction buyers increased BTC holdings most sharply after Bitcoin fell to $60,000 in January.
- CryptoQuant says spot demand could turn positive after staying negative since February, with historical gains following similar shifts.
- Bitcoin spot volume on Binance has fallen below $1 billion, reaching levels not seen since the 2023 bear market.
Bitcoin’s trading activity has fallen sharply as spot demand approaches a possible turn, while conviction buyers increase their holdings. Glassnode said strong hands are buying BTC, with the largest increase in conviction holdings occurring after Bitcoin reached $60,000 in January. CryptoQuant also reported that spot demand could turn positive for the first time since February.
Strong Hands Increase Bitcoin Holdings
According to Glassnode, bottoms form when profit-taking slows and conviction buyers enter. The firm said the current setup resembles conditions seen during 2022. Notably, Glassnode identified January as a major accumulation period.
Conviction buyers recorded their largest increase in BTC holdings when Bitcoin dropped to $60,000. CryptoQuant also reported a change in spot demand. Its data showed demand is close to turning positive after remaining negative since February.
Historically, CryptoQuant said similar shifts produced a median 18.1% gain over 60 days. The pattern also recorded a 78% win rate, rising to 87% when valuations were depressed.
Bitcoin Taker Volume Hits Exhaustion Zone
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant said Bitcoin taker buy volume has entered a historical exhaustion zone. Similar contractions have appeared during capitulation or accumulation periods. The firm said those periods have often preceded a recovery in demand.
The data adds another measure to the broader decline in Bitcoin trading activity. That decline is especially visible on Binance, according to analyst Darkfost. Bitcoin spot trading volume there has fallen below $1 billion.
Binance Bitcoin Volume Falls to Bear-Market Levels
Darkfost said Binance handles nearly 40% of total spot volume across exchanges. Current Bitcoin volume remains far below levels recorded during March 2024. Several trading days during that month exceeded $15 billion in spot volume.
Darkfost said current volumes are the lowest recorded since the end of the 2023 bear market. The analyst described the decline as a sharp reduction in investor activity. He also noted that Binance has processed nearly $200 trillion in Bitcoin volume since 2020.
For comparison, Darkfost said that figure equals roughly twice the size of the global M2 money supply.
