- Bitcoin exchange balances recovered about 28,000 BTC by August 16, reversing 84% of the earlier decline.
- BTC has underperformed the S&P 500 across most trading days over three months, marking its longest such streak in six years.
- Bitcoin is within $1,000 of the $64,900 on-chain trader cost basis, with $65,000 emerging as key resistance.
Bitcoin exchange balances have recovered most of their recent decline, while BTC approaches the $64,900 cost basis tracked by on-chain traders. Santiment said exchange supply reached about 1.332 million BTC on August 16, reversing roughly 84% of the coins removed between June 12 and July 28.
Exchange Supply Reverses Six-Week Decline
According to Santiment, Bitcoin exchange balances fell from about 1.337 million BTC on June 12. They reached roughly 1.304 million BTC on July 28, a decline of about 33,000 BTC. However, balances then increased by around 28,000 BTC through August 16.
That leaves exchange supply about 5,200 BTC below the June peak. Notably, Santiment said the refill has flattened over the past few days. The data also shows that the earlier supply decline took six weeks to build.
The reversal happened in less than three weeks. Santiment also explained how exchange balances can rise alongside strong ETF inflows. According to the firm, ETF creations can use OTC desks and existing holders. Therefore, ETF inflows do not always remove coins from visible exchange wallets.
Bitcoin Trails Stocks Over Three Months
The exchange data comes as Bitcoin’s relative performance against stocks has weakened. Glassnode said BTC outperformed the stock market on the latest trading day. However, Glassnode found that BTC outperformed the S&P 500 on only about one-third of trading days.
The firm measured the period across the previous three months. That stretch represents Bitcoin’s longest such underperformance streak across its six-year history. Glassnode questioned whether the latest outperformance would continue or remain limited.
The observation places Bitcoin’s recent market performance alongside the changes in exchange supply. Meanwhile, Darkfost highlighted another level traders are watching.
BTC Approaches $64,900 Cost Basis
Darkfost said BTC is slowly approaching the cost basis for on-chain traders. This group includes short-term holders with one million to three million days of age. Their cost basis currently is at $64,900.
Darkfost said Bitcoin is within $1,000 of testing that level. According to the analyst, these investors frequently trade in and out of the spot market. For now, Darkfost said $64,900 continues to act as resistance.
He also noted that significant confluence is around $65,000. Darkfost added that Bitcoin may not break above that level durably on its first attempt.
