- CFTC argued federally regulated event contracts fall under exclusive federal oversight, not state gambling enforcement laws.
- The agency backed Kalshi’s appeal after Ohio moved to block sports-related prediction contracts within the state.
- The Sixth Circuit ruling could shape future regulation for prediction markets tied to sports, elections, and economics.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed an amicus brief in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit defending its exclusive authority over prediction markets, escalating its broader legal battle against state-level attempts to regulate event-based contracts.
The filing was submitted in the case KalshiEx LLC v. Matthew T. Schuler, et al., where the CFTC is backing Kalshi’s challenge against regulators in Ohio.
CFTC Says States Cannot Override Federal Market Authority
In the brief, the CFTC argued that Congress established a comprehensive federal framework giving the agency sole jurisdiction over federally regulated prediction markets and event contracts traded on designated contract markets.
According to the regulator, Ohio’s attempt to classify Kalshi’s sports event contracts as illegal gambling improperly intrudes into federal commodities oversight. Michael S. Selig criticized the earlier district court ruling in Ohio, stating the court adopted “an improperly narrow view” of the Commission’s jurisdiction.
“The CFTC will not allow overzealous state governments to undermine the agency’s longstanding authority over these markets,” Selig said in connection with the filing. The case has become one of the most important legal disputes surrounding the future of regulated prediction markets in the United States.
Kalshi Appeal Could Shape Prediction Market Industry
Ohio regulators previously ordered Kalshi to stop offering sports-related event contracts in the state, arguing the products resembled unlicensed sports betting. Kalshi responded by suing the Ohio Casino Control Commission and Ohio’s attorney general last year, seeking federal protection for its contracts.
After a federal judge denied Kalshi’s request for an injunction in March, the company appealed to the Sixth Circuit.
The CFTC’s latest filing strongly supports Kalshi’s position, arguing that event contracts traded on federally regulated exchanges fall under exclusive federal supervision rather than state gaming laws.
The regulator warned that allowing states to restrict sports event contracts could threaten broader categories of federally regulated prediction markets tied to elections, economics, and other events.
Broader Federal-State Battle Intensifies
The Sixth Circuit filing marks the latest move in an increasingly aggressive campaign by the CFTC to defend federal oversight of prediction markets. The agency has already sued regulators in Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, and Wisconsin over enforcement actions targeting federally regulated platforms.
The disputes involve firms including Crypto.com, Coinbase, Robinhood, Polymarket, and Kalshi. Earlier this year, the CFTC also filed an amicus brief supporting Crypto.com in a separate Ninth Circuit case involving Nevada regulators.
Prediction Markets Face Growing Regulatory Importance
The legal battle arrives as prediction markets gain increasing visibility across crypto and traditional finance. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded rapidly by offering contracts tied to elections, economic indicators, sports outcomes, and geopolitical events.
At the center of the dispute is whether those products should be treated primarily as federally regulated financial derivatives or as state-regulated gambling products.
The CFTC’s position remains clear: event contracts traded on federally approved exchanges fall under federal commodities law, and states cannot impose separate licensing or enforcement frameworks that conflict with congressional authority.
The Sixth Circuit’s eventual ruling could establish a major precedent for how prediction markets are regulated across the United States going forward.
