- Colin Talks Crypto warns that TOTAL3’s breakout is fueled by stablecoins while TOTAL3ES shows altcoins still face strong resistance levels.
- Altcoin market strength remains unproven as TOTAL3ES lags below resistance, highlighting how stablecoin growth distorts real speculative demand.
- BTC dominance could rise if TOTAL3ES rejects resistance, creating a fakeout that misleads traders into assuming altseason has already started.
Altcoin investors face a crucial distinction as analyst Colin Talks Crypto highlights discrepancies between TOTAL3 and TOTAL3ES charts. TOTAL3, which includes stablecoins, confirmed a breakout above resistance in 2025, reaching highs near $1.4 trillion. However, TOTAL3ES, which excludes stablecoins, has not broken past overhead resistance. This means the breakout reflects stablecoin expansion, not pure altcoin growth.
Colin explained that many traders misread TOTAL3 as proof of an altcoin breakout. “This means we’ve seen a stablecoin breakout— not an altcoin breakout,” he stressed on X. Consequently, traders now face the risk of overestimating altcoin momentum. The divergence underscores why stablecoins distort market cap readings during major cycles.
Diverging Market Structures
Besides this key observation, historical price action shows both charts followed similar paths during the 2021 to 2023 bear cycle. TOTAL3 and TOTAL3ES declined sharply from $1 trillion levels in 2021 to lows near $250 billion. Both metrics stabilized by mid-2022, with accumulation driving recovery phases into 2023.
Moreover, TOTAL3 surged steadily through 2024 as buying pressure expanded. The chart then broke long-term resistance, marking its first major upside since the 2021 peak. TOTAL3ES, however, approached but failed to surpass its resistance line, stalling near previous cycle highs. Hence, stablecoin inclusion produced the illusion of a broader market breakout.
Volume patterns further supported this divergence. Higher activity coincided with TOTAL3’s breakout, while TOTAL3ES showed weaker conviction. Consequently, the structural difference highlights the importance of analyzing charts with and without stablecoins for clarity.
Implications for Altseason and Dominance
Additionally, Colin warned that BTC dominance could climb if TOTAL3ES rejects from resistance before eventually breaking through. He suggested this scenario could trigger a fakeout, misleading investors into believing altseason started earlier than reality. Such conditions emphasize how market psychology shifts when traders rely on incomplete data.
Furthermore, the charts illustrate how stablecoin growth skews perceptions of speculative demand. Excluding stablecoins provides a clearer view of actual altcoin adoption and speculative cycles. Hence, institutional analysts increasingly favor TOTAL3ES when evaluating long-term health.
