- Negotiators including Coinbase and Ripple remain split on activity-based rewards.
- Prediction markets show falling odds of CLARITY Act passage amid political and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Stablecoin supply hit $300B with $33T in volume, even as policy talks remain unresolved.
Closed-door talks on U.S. stablecoin rules face mounting pressure as a March 1 deadline approaches. Negotiations involving crypto firms, banks, and the White House remain unresolved. While lawmakers debate yield restrictions under the CLARITY Act, stablecoin usage across traditional finance platforms continues to expand.
Stablecoin Yield Debate Blocks CLARITY Act Progress
According to Crypto In America, negotiations around stablecoin yield provisions remain stuck. Representatives from crypto companies and banking groups have met three times without reaching consensus. Draft language circulated last week failed to bridge differences.
At the center of the dispute is whether activity-based rewards should remain allowed. Yield on idle stablecoin balances appears excluded. However, incentives tied to transactions still divide negotiators. Banking groups argue such rewards could drain deposits. Crypto firms counter that limits would reduce competition.
Meanwhile, White House officials shared a separate CLARITY Act draft during private sessions. Participants included Coinbase, Ripple, and Andreessen Horowitz. Officials reiterated an internal March 1 deadline to move Senate discussions forward.
Political Signals Weigh on Market Expectations
Prediction markets reflect rising uncertainty. Polymarket places a 51% chance of passage in 2026, down 14%. Kalshi shows only a 35% chance of passage before May. Sentiment weakened after Donald Trump omitted crypto from his State of the Union address.
According to Santiment, investors view the CLARITY Act as critical for defining agency oversight. However, falling odds have dampened expectations for near-term clarity. Santiment also cited geopolitical tensions and new global tariff disputes as added pressure.
Separately, easing U.S.–Iran tensions could support broader markets. Commentator 360trader said banks could issue stablecoins legally if the bill passes.
Stablecoin Growth Continues Despite Policy Gridlock
While talks stall, stablecoin activity continues to grow. Payments firm Stripe has reportedly quadrupled stablecoin transaction volumes. Data cited by 360trader shows stablecoin supply reached $300 billion in 2025, processing $33 trillion in transactions.
Convicted FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried said the bill would mark a milestone for crypto regulation. He added that he previously supported similar efforts to limit SEC authority under Gary Gensler.
As negotiations continue, lawmakers and industry groups await direction before the White House deadline.
