- Institutional inflows exceeded 120K BTC in July as 92% of Bitcoin holdings stayed profitable before its rebound to $124K.
- U.S. miners expanded their global share to 31.5%, with difficulty at record highs and revenues holding steady.
- Options markets turned bullish, with a 3.21 times call to put ratio and premiums hitting $1.1B over 30 days.
Bitcoin’s recent rebound has renewed debate over its movement, with VanEck reiterating its prediction that the crypto could climb to $180,000 by year end. The investment firm released its Mid-August 2025 “ChainCheck” report, analyzing multiple on-chain metrics, derivatives activity, and institutional flows.
According to VanEck, Bitcoin’s resilience against setbacks and the scale of corporate investment continue to strengthen the case for further gains. The report noted rising U.S. mining dominance, increased institutional allocations, and a bullish options market as key support factors, while also pointing to possible risks from low volatility and treasury financing challenges.
Institutional Flows Drive Renewed Momentum
VanEck noted that exchange traded products and digital asset treasuries added over 120,000 BTC in July, indicating strong institutional engagement. Corporate interest has remained steady, despite Ethereum attracting high inflows during the same period.
The firm emphasized that 92% of Bitcoin’s on-chain holdings were already profitable before the token’s rebound above $124,000 this month. This pattern of broad profitability, coupled with CME futures basis reaching 9%, the highest since February 2025, indicated a renewed appetite for speculative positioning.
The report also observed that BTC dominance slipped to 59.7% by mid-August, falling from 64.5% in early July. Ethereum gained market share as ordinal inscriptions collapsed to their second-lowest level in a year. However, VanEck argued that corporate capital has helped keep volatility compressed even as transaction activity surged 26% month-over-month.
U.S. Miners Expand Global Share
Mining activity was another focal point, with U.S. miners now commanding 31.5% of the global hashrate. While overall difficulty reached new highs in July, revenues remained strong, suggesting stable conditions for operators.
VanEck noted TeraWulf’s decision to partially move away from Bitcoin but did not view it as a negative trend. Instead, the consolidation of mining power in the U.S. was seen as shaping performance dispersion across operators.
Notably, several listed mining firms showed divergent outcomes. Applied Digital (APLD) posted gains, while most peers lagged despite higher hashrate participation. Operational execution and the integration of AI and HPC workloads were flagged as areas likely to determine performance moving forward.
Options Market Positions Build
The options market indicates increased bullish positioning, with a call-to-put ratio rising to 3.21 times, its highest since June 2024. Total option premiums reached $1.1 billion in the past 30 days, while implied volatility fell to 32%, well below its one year average of 50%.
VanEck stated that this compression has lowered option costs, with one year out of the money calls priced significantly cheaper than in late 2024. Forward risks remain, according to VanEck. Low volatility could hinder treasury financing and amplify negative price moves if corporate allocations slow.
Large outstanding options positions also raise the chance of amplified swings during autumn. Even so, the firm reaffirmed its $180,000 target, citing ongoing institutional inflows, steady mining revenues, and seasonal re-engagement from investors.
