- Bitcoin and Ethereum futures rose $3B as retail traders leveraged up while pros exited, defying capitulation signals.
- Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Gate.io saw steady accumulation, showing markets held or grew positions amid December declines.
- Options expiry may trigger volatility; Bitcoin could dip to $80k before rebounding toward $94.5k, with $72k as key support.
Traders continued to pile on leverage in December despite market fear hitting the crypto space. According to CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk, open interest increased by $2 billion, pushing combined Bitcoin and Ethereum futures from $35 billion to $38 billion.
This represents a seven percent leverage expansion even when markets were expected to capitulate. Bitcoin positions alone rose $1 billion from $22 billion to $23 billion, while Ethereum surged $1.4 billion from $13 billion to $15 billion. Meanwhile, prices hovered near $88,000, and the Fear Index registered a low 27, signaling persistent optimism.
Exchange Accumulation Contradicts Capitulation Signals
Crazzyblockk noted, “Activity collapsed by forty per cent, and whales withdrew twenty thousand Bitcoin. Professional money exited while retail leveraged up.” This suggests that retail traders are taking advantage of falling activity to open new positions.
Binance, Bybit, and OKX showed steady accumulation, while Gate.io led the expansion. Consequently, all tracked exchanges maintained or even grew positions rather than reducing risk during December’s declines.
Funding rates remained positive, with traders paying for longs. The combination of growing open interest and collapsing activity indicates conviction without confirmation.
Options Expiry Could Trigger Volatility
Adding to potential market movement, CrypNuevo highlighted in a thread record options expirations on Friday. He explained, “My main scenario is a downside liquidity run first, here’s why: ↓(1/5).” In terms of liquidations, higher timeframes show more upside at $96k, but lower timeframes suggest downside around $85k. He predicts the market may first drop to the low $80k range before bouncing back toward $94.5k.
CrypNuevo also warned that losing the $80k range could push Bitcoin lower to $72k, a key previous resistance acting as strong support. He noted, “Maybe. low 80s>100k>72k?” indicating cautious potential swings.
