- S&P 500 tests 4608 support, a historic pivot zone aligned with key retracements.
- Elliott Wave suggests an unfinished downside before a possible rally to 7500.
- RSI and moving averages hint at bullish momentum near the long-term channel base.
The S&P 500 index is testing a key support level following steep declines from its recent peaks. Market experts seek key levels to determine the direction the index will move next.
Capitulation Zone and Elliott Wave Structure
Tracking market behavior, analysts observed price action clustering near 4608.52 during multiple historical corrections. This area intersects with Fibonacci retracement levels and prior consolidation ranges that shaped significant directional changes.
Source: EGRAG CRYPTO
In the timespan above, Market analyst EGRAG CRYPTO mapped an Elliott Wave structure based on current symmetry and previous wave movements. He stated Wave 5 remains incomplete and, if it mirrors Wave 3, a 15% drop could unfold. His broader scenario considers a 25% correction from the all-time high.
EGRAG referred to 4608.52 as a zone of capitulation, allowing for fluctuation in timing rather than marking a firm bottom. Observing price behavior, he projected a recovery path targeting 6500–7500, echoing previous bounce patterns. He outlined a 12.48% decline from 5265 to 4608.52, balanced by a 26.83% potential surge to 5800.
The analyst noted a 3.94% price recovery after a gap fill, adding context to the ongoing retracement process. SPX price has moved through the retracement range between 5265 and 4950, affirming these levels as immediate resistance. These zones serve as key markers where trend reversals or continuations may unfold.
Long-Term Channel Dynamics and RSI Trends
Market analyst TradingShot has provided a comparative analysis focused on long-term channel dynamics and broader price behavior. His study explores recurring reactions to a rising channel and consistent moving average patterns across multiple cycles.
Source: TradingShot
Observing market trends, he marked a recent test of the lower channel boundary and the 200-week moving average. This dual interaction appeared in early 2025 and mirrored reactions from October 2022 and March 2020. Those moments preceded meaningful rallies, forming the foundation of his current model.
Examining RSI performance, TradingShot notes that higher lows coincided with channel base recoveries. The RSI recently dropped below 40, matching levels seen before upward reversals in previous cycles. A trendline connecting these RSI lows remains intact and supports continued bullish momentum.
He projected a move toward 7200, aligning with the upper channel and 2.0 Fibonacci extension. This target corresponds with former high points in past bull markets. Current price action near 5345.58 places the index at a potential midpoint for further movement.
Tracking both analysts’ projections, the S&P 500 stands near key trendline and moving average intersections. Price behavior at 4608.52 and the channel base will influence the index’s next significant move.
