- Solana’s price has surged 150% in 2025, but a rising wedge signals potential downside risks in the near term.
- The likelihood of Solana ETF approval has surged, potentially attracting more U.S. investor demand for SOL tokens.
- Institutional investors continue to accumulate Solana, with significant holdings from companies like Forward Industries and DeFi Development.
Solana’s price has surged by over 150% since the beginning of 2025, reaching $239 as of September 21. This growth comes after a major dip to $95 in April. Despite strong bullish momentum, Solana’s rally is now hitting a critical technical resistance. A rising wedge pattern has formed on the daily chart, indicating potential downside risk. As the price approaches the convergence of the upper and lower trendlines, a reversal seems increasingly possible.
The formation of the rising wedge comprises two rising and converging trendlines. The highs have been trending towards the upper trendline since May, and both trendlines are converging. The given pattern can be a frequent indicator of an upcoming change in the direction, particularly when the momentum indicators demonstrate the weakened signals.
Source: TradingView
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also pointed towards a symmetrical triangle that indicates it is also approaching a turning point. Additionally, the MACD lines have crossed downward, reinforcing concerns of a potential breakdown. A bearish move could push Solana’s price to the next support level around $200.
Fundamentals Support Long-Term Bullish Outlook
On the positive side, several strong catalysts continue to support Solana’s long-term outlook. The likelihood of approval for spot Solana ETFs has surged to over 90%. Many of the largest firms, such as Bitwise, Canary, and 21Shares, have applied to ETFs, and approval of them would lead to a high demand by U.S. investors. In addition, Solana is currently working on its next upgrade, Alpenglow, which should make its network faster and switch to a proof-of-stake framework as well, which is also increasing the mood.
Institutional demand is still high.
Solana is still experiencing high institutional investor demand even with technical difficulties. There are well-known participants, including Forward Industries and DeFi Development, who have amassed SOL tokens in the billions and have a total value in the billions. This institutional interest, as well as anticipations of the Alpenglow upgrade, is serving as an impetus of optimism over the future of the network. The demand for Solana could be strong in the next few months as more companies are building their treasuries.
