- Bitcoin’s STH-MVRV ratio at 0.9 signals short-term holders face 10 percent unrealized losses, hinting at weak market conviction.
- Each recovery of STH-MVRV above 1 historically marked bullish trends, making the $92,800 STH realized price a critical resistance level.
- STH-MVRV falling from 1.2 to 0.9 shows growing sell pressure and caution, with current levels suggesting short-term market weakness.
According to analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) are once again under pressure as the STH Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio hovers around 0.9. This signals that STHs are currently sitting on an average unrealized loss of 10%.
The realized price for short-term holders is fluctuating near $92,800, a critical level that needs to be reclaimed. A break above this price could confirm bullish continuation. However, the current divergence between Bitcoin’s price and the STH-MVRV ratio shows growing caution among short-term investors.
STH-MVRV Ratio Signals Short-Term Weakness
The STH-MVRV ratio is a key metric for assessing short-term investor sentiment. It compares market value to realized value for coins held under 155 days. Losses for recent purchasers are reflected when this ratio falls below 1. At 0.9, the ratio is currently between the -0.8 and -1.2 standard deviation areas, well below the mean.
Historically, this range often aligns with consolidation phases or the tail end of market downtrends. Moreover, such dips frequently precede accumulation periods. Besides, the chart shows that each MVRV recovery above 1 typically marked the beginning of a new bullish phase.
Long-Term Patterns and Key Resistance Levels
Since April 2021, the +1 standard deviation level on the STH-MVRV has acted as a resistance point. This threshold, now corresponding to an MVRV value of 1.32, remains unbroken. Each instance of the ratio breaching this level has coincided with cycle tops. During these moments, short-term holders enjoyed an average unrealized profit of 32%.
Additionally, five major peaks above the +1 standard deviation line since early 2021 all preceded local Bitcoin tops. Each was followed by a price decline, revealing the metric’s reliability in flagging overheated conditions. Consequently, current levels below 1 signal caution rather than exuberance.
Bitcoin’s price remains elevated but lacks conviction. Meanwhile, the falling STH-MVRV indicates weakening support from short-term participants. Moreover, the drop from above 1.2 to 0.9 shows increasing sell pressure. Hence, reclaiming the $92,800 realized price for STHs becomes essential to confirm a bullish trend resumption.
