- PUMP bounced from $0.0022 with RSI at 18.54, targeting a breakout above $0.0033 to confirm trend reversal.
- Rising CMF and $456M in volume suggest strong buyer interest, aided by trader incentive speculation.
- Long term risks persist with 54% of holders at a loss and $19.6M in underwater buybacks clouding outlook.
PUMP has had a notable rebound from recent lows, but key resistance still is in the way of a confirmed breakout. After plunging to an oversold state with a 7 day RSI of 18.54 on July 25, the token has rebounded sharply.
This is its lowest RSI since its July 12 ICO. The recovery aligns with a strong bounce from $0.0022 support, where price held firm for 48 hours amid $220 million in spot volume. At press time, PUMP was trading at $0.002893, just below a key resistance zone between $0.0029 and $0.0030.
Bulls Eye $0.003 Break as Volume Returns
The $0.0030 mark is important for PUMP’s upward momentum. The price surged through mid channel resistance, supported by a rising Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) value of +0.05. This indicator suggests renewed buyer interest.
However, the channel top around $0.0033 must be breached to validate a trend reversal. A green breakout zone near $0.0029 implies a potential 79.63% move toward $0.00545 if the breakout holds.
A decisive candle has already formed above the mid-range, but sustained movement above $0.0033 remains necessary. Should bulls maintain that level, technical projections based on the descending channel height place the next upside target around $0.00545. Failure to do so could lead to a retest of lower levels near $0.0024.
Incentive Program Speculation Drives Momentum
The latest bounce is also tied to speculation around a rewards program update. On July 26, Pump.fun’s SDK hinted at a possible 30 day trader incentives scheme. While not confirmed, the leak came as trading volumes surged, likely due to retail activity. PUMP saw $456 million in turnover, equal to 45% of its market cap during this rebound.
This incentive strategy appears aimed at regaining lost market share from competitor LetsBONK.fun, which now controls 80.7% of meme coin DEX volume. Technical confirmation through oversold conditions and a bullish divergence on lower timeframes helped support the short term bounce.
Whale Activity, Buyback Exposure Cloud Long Term Outlook
Despite bullish indicators, underlying risks remain. Around $19.6 million in buybacks are now below water. Furthermore, on-chain data shows 54% of current holders are at a loss, suggesting vulnerability if sell pressure increases.
The full diluted valuation (FDV) of $2.4 billion continues to cast doubt on long term upside without confirmed fundamentals. Overall, PUMP’s recent surge blends technical rebounds and speculative excitement. However, holding above the $0.0033 level is key to sustaining momentum and reversing the trend.
