- The month of October closed with an unusual 3% market decrease, which interrupted its bullish seasonal pattern as the crypto assets were under pressure due to the rise in yield and trade stress.
- November comes in as an excellent month, as far as historical data is concerned, overselling, or, at least, a cautious mood, and the increase in liquidity preconditions possible recovery.
- The shift of the Federal Reserve to tightening and easing and the rebalancing flows placed Bitcoin and altcoins in the front line at the end of the year.
The crypto market ended October in a sudden decline, yet experts believe November will mark the start of a new phase of improvement and hope.
October’s Downturn Breaks the Seasonal Trend
According to @cryptothedoggy, October’s performance marked a rare deviation from its bullish reputation. Historically known as one of the strongest months for markets, this time it ended with a -3% decline. Crypto and commodities both weakened as global macro conditions tightened.
The key drivers behind this pullback were clear. Increasingly high bond yields, U.S.-China trade friction, and postponed interest rate cut expectations have exerted pressure on risk assets. Investor sentiment has soured as liquidity has faded, resulting in a protracted “risk-off” environment that has curbed enthusiasm for all things digital.
This downturn triggered widespread caution. Numerous traders decreased their exposure as they awaited better macro signals. The weakness during the month was starkly different from the historical strength in October, leaving all participants pondering if the seasonal pattern had finished changing—or merely set up a stronger rebound.
November Enters with Renewed Optimism
As @cryptothedoggy observed, November historically ranks among the top-performing months for equities, with the S&P 500 showing strong seasonal returns since 1950. Bitcoin has also experienced notable recoveries during this period, particularly following weak Octobers.
The crypto market shed approximately $245 billion in October, creating an oversold setup. Historically, when sentiment turns overly cautious at the start of a bullish season, conditions often favor a sharp reversal. Improved liquidity, easing macro uncertainty, and renewed institutional activity point toward the potential for renewed strength.
This combination—weak sentiment entering a historically favorable month—mirrors previous setups that preceded strong fourth-quarter rallies. Traders now anticipate whether this pattern could again drive a November recovery.
Diverging Fortunes Between Stocks and Crypto
While crypto faced heavy selling, equities told a different story. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both logged their greatest month of the year with a total increase of around $1.6 trillion in market cap. This included moves from the quarterly numbers of much larger companies like Apple and Amazon that jumped around 8% and 9%, respectively.
This divergence marked a striking contrast. October, often called “Uptober” in crypto circles, turned into a “Pumptober” for stocks instead. Yet, analysts believe the balance could shift again as capital rotation begins.
Historically, late-year rebalancing and profit-taking in equities tend to redirect liquidity toward undervalued assets. According to @cryptothedoggy, that capital may soon flow back into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana as traders position ahead of the 2025 halving narrative.
Macro Shifts Could Support a Late-Year Rally
A major contributor to increasing optimism stems from recent indications of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve seems to be moving in a direction of easing rather than tightening. The thread stated: “QT → DONE, QE → BACK, $1.5T PRINTING WAVE → COMING.” Many investors have already priced a rate cut for December.
This potential liquidity wave has the opportunity to further drive bullish sentiment in risk assets, and in particular cryptocurrencies. Historically, when liquidity improves, such transitional periods have accompanied very strong upward momentum in digital markets. October may have shaken out speculative positions, but November opens with renewed anticipation.
As @cryptothedoggy summarized, “Red months test conviction. Green months reward discipline.” Whether history repeats or merely rhymes, the coming weeks will reveal if November’s setup delivers on its bullish potential
