- Negative funding rates signal market uncertainty, with historical trends suggesting potential price rebounds and corporate accumulation.
- Institutional investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin despite weak macroeconomic conditions, while long-term holders pause selling.
- A potential 50% Bitcoin surge could push prices to $130,000 if Federal Reserve policies ease and ETF inflows strengthen.
According to crypto analyst Axel, Bitcoin’s funding rate has dipped into negative territory on major exchanges, signaling a shift in market sentiment. Binance, ByBit, OKX, and Deribit all show a near-zero funding rate, indicating uncertainty among traders. Historically, similar conditions have led to price increases four times, while a single instance resulted in a decline. Corporate investors are accumulating Bitcoin, while spot market selling pressure remains minimal.
Meanwhile, experienced holders are pausing their sales, with long-term holders returning to accumulation. However, poor macroeconomic indicators continue to block BTC’s growth. Positive signals from the Federal Reserve and the Trump Administration could boost ETF inflows, potentially igniting a new rally. He speculates a 50% surge could set a price target of $130,000 for the next quarter.
Market Stabilization and Funding Rate Trends
Bitcoin’s perpetual futures funding rate (7-day SMA) provides key insights into market sentiment. The recent drop mirrors previous patterns that led to price recoveries. The funding rate fluctuates between strong buy (+0.05%) and strong sell (-0.05%) levels.
In early 2023, a rising funding rate coincided with Bitcoin’s price recovery. Later that year, the positive funding rate aligned with another price surge. By mid-2024, a negative funding rate signaled a correction, followed by a rebound. In early 2025, the funding rate remains near neutral, suggesting market stabilization.
Potential Catalysts for the Next Rally
Even though Bitcoin is resilient, there are still macroeconomic obstacles to overcome. The increasing momentum has slowed due to poor economic data. Nonetheless, institutional demand is still growing, and corporate investors are actively buying Bitcoin.
Price movement may be driven by fresh ETF inflows if the Fed relaxes monetary policy. Furthermore, large investors require a clear price target. A 50% increase from current levels could set Bitcoin’s next milestone at $130,000.
