- Locked altcoin holders lost up to 83% in value vs BTC as market illiquidity and steep drawdowns crushed valuations across the board.
- STIX data shows most tokens dropped over 50% while Bitcoin gained 45%, magnifying the cost of holding illiquid altcoin positions.
- With $40B in altcoin unlocks coming in 2025, token holders face further price pressure and steep OTC discounts to exit positions.
Locked token holders have faced brutal losses over the past year, with average drawdowns nearing 50% from their original OTC valuations. According to recent STIX data, these investors had the opportunity to exit their positions at double the current spot prices just one year ago. However, those who held on now find themselves staring at far deeper value erosion. This valuation collapse underscores the brutal nature of illiquidity in volatile crypto markets. Adding further pressure, over $40 billion in altcoin unlocks are set to flood the market in 2025, signaling more pain ahead.
Massive Drawdowns Paint a Grim Picture
Token-by-token analysis highlights the broad market damage. WLD, despite showing relative strength, still dropped 22% from a $10B valuation to $7.8B. EIGEN faced a punishing 75% drawdown, falling from $6B to $1.5B. TIA also slid 44%, while ZK saw a 64% loss. Meanwhile, ZRO and BERA fared better, declining only 17% and 15% respectively. Only JITO defied the trend, surging 75% to $1.7B, making it the lone outperformer.
Moreover, tokens like BLAST and SCR collapsed entirely, losing 88% and 85% of their valuations. These once-promising assets now sit below $300 million. IO and W both posted declines close to the 50% average, reinforcing the scale of the broader market drop.
BTC Outperformance Highlights Lost Opportunity
Besides the absolute losses, opportunity cost adds another layer of damage. Over the same 12-month span, Bitcoin gained 45%. This means $1 in BTC last year is now worth $1.45. In contrast, the same $1 in locked altcoins has shrunk to $0.50. Furthermore, if sold OTC today, holders would receive just $0.25. Hence, their effective value loss stands at 82.8% compared to BTC and about 75% against USD.
Additionally, many tokens will see their cliff lockups expire in 2025. This shift reduces average vesting durations, slightly easing discount pressures. However, liquidity concerns remain dominant, especially with billions set to hit the market.
