- CME FedWatch Tool shows 89% probability of a 25bps cut, confirming strong market expectations.
- Altcoin Season Index sits at 65, hinting at a nearing rotation from BTC to altcoins.
- BTC Dominance drops to 58.61% as breakout patterns form in altcoin market caps.
A Federal Reserve rate cut is now fully priced in for September, fueling a wave of optimism across altcoins. Crypto markets are signaling a strong shift in sentiment as key indicators flash bullish.
Fed Rate Cut Probability Surges
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s now a 100% market consensus for a 25 basis point Fed rate cut during the September 17 FOMC meeting. The current federal funds target rate of 4.25%–4.50% is expected to fall to 4.00%–4.25%, with an 89% probability priced in. Just 11% of market watchers are betting on a bigger cut down to 3.75%–4.00%.
This shift comes as inflation cools and consumer spending slows, especially in jobs and retail. Lower rates usually push more money into riskier assets like altcoins, which often thrive when the Fed eases policy.
The Federal Reserve’s expected pivot is echoing through crypto markets. Altcoins are beginning to show strong relative strength, with key support levels holding firm across the board.
Altcoin Season Nearing as Index Hits Key Threshold
The Altcoin Season Index currently sits at 65, just below the critical 75 level that marks the official start of an altseason. Historically, previous cycles show strong rallies once the index sustains moves beyond this point. The last time the index reached 65 and pushed higher was in early 2025, leading to a multi-week altcoin surge.
It’s been 271 days since the last Alt Season, far beyond the historical 66-day average. Momentum appears to be building again. The OTHERS/ALTS market cap—excluding the top 10 coins—is now back above $300 billion, with technicals showing a symmetrical triangle breakout pattern. Resistance is being tested near the $303.16 billion level, and a confirmed breakout could see a rapid move toward $328 billion.
BTC Dominance Drops Capital Rotates Into Altcoins
The Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart reveals a sharp drop to 58.61%, after failing to break upper resistance. This move mirrors the setup seen during the 2021 Alt Season, where falling dominance led to major rotations into altcoins.
A bearish MACD crossover has also formed, pointing to weakening Bitcoin dominance. A breakdown from the rising channel suggests that capital is now flowing into mid- and low-cap altcoins. This is further confirmed by the total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH, which has broken above $1.06 trillion, with potential targets set between $1.3T and $1.4T.
With macro tailwinds aligning and altcoin charts flashing strength, all eyes are now on whether this breakout sustains—and officially ushers in Altseason 2025.
