- Ethereum’s price action echoes prior bottoms, but key resistance blocks fast recovery.
- $2,300 stands out as a critical level for bulls aiming to regain lost momentum.
- ETH trading below the realized price may signal early accumulation like March 2020.
Ethereum is trading under its realized price for the first time in years, sparking renewed debate among market analysts. While some foresee extended consolidation, others suggest historical parallels may hint at a potential bottom forming.
Extended Downtrend May Signal Delayed Reversal
Ethereum’s current price action mirrors past cyclical lows, yet recovery signs remain unclear despite strong on-chain metrics. Key resistance zones continue to stall momentum as technical indicators flash mixed signals. Analysts are divided on whether Ethereum is forming a base or simply drifting within a broader consolidation range.
Source: Castillo Trading
In the analysis time frame above, market analyst Castillo, who tracks Ethereum’s long-term trends, has mapped out the market structure from 2021 to early 2025. According to Castillo, Ethereum historically lags in breaking out of deep corrections, often requiring months or even years to recover. He mentioned that recent declines below the $1,600 mark are a potential cyclical low but emphasized caution as multiple key levels were lost.
In Castillo’s insights, the time frame shows both major rallies and repeated drawdowns. Ethereum price recovery could be gradual, marking resistance at around $2,300 as being central to another bullish surge. His time frame indicates a consistent rise above $2,000 into the latter part of 2025, with higher lows tracing into 2026
The analyst also highlighted Ethereum’s stair-step recovery pattern, with each pullback being less deep than the last. This signals weakening selling pressure. He believes Ethereum’s ranging phases offer optimal conditions for active traders, even as long-term holders may face delays reaching new all-time highs.
Realized Price Breach Draws Historical Comparisons
Carl Moon has offered additional insights based on Ethereum’s deviation from its realized price, which now sits just above $2,000. This marks a rare technical condition that historically preceded major uptrends. He highlighted that the last similar breach occurred in March 2020, before a steep rally followed.
Source: Carl Moon
His analysis tracks Ethereum’s price alongside its realized price since early 2020, using wallet accumulation data. The time frame shows that while market prices fluctuate, the realized price steadily rises, reflecting long-term buying. Carlmarked two periods, 2020 and 2025, when Ethereum traded below realized cost, both aligning with major accumulation zones.
Moon also pointed out that Ethereum’s realized price exhibits consistent growth, unlike its volatile market swings. The divergence now mirrors early-cycle behavior. Hence, analysts see potential for another strong recovery if historical patterns persist into 2026.
