- Ethereum closed above its 50-week MA for the first time since April, signaling potential for a sustained 30–50% rally.
- ETH dominance rebounded from a cycle low, echoing prior patterns that led to sharp capital rotation into altcoins and major rallies.
- Record-high Ethereum open interest of 7.1M ETH suggests traders are positioning for a breakout above $2,850 with minimal overleveraging.
Ethereum closed last week at $2,680.61 after gaining 5.39%, reclaiming the 50-week moving average for the first time since early April. The move followed a bounce from the macro support zone between $1,530 and $1,700, a level Ethereum has respected for over two years.
Weekly Structure Shows Reversal Behavior
The price printed a strong bullish engulfing candle that invalidated five prior weekly lower highs. The 50-week moving average, flipped from resistance to reclaimed support, has historically preceded 30–50% rallies in past cycles. Ethereum also shows a developing higher low above $2,400, strengthening its mid-term bullish thesis.
Source: Post on X
Historical price structure shows a repeated pattern: after major tests of the $1,700 zone, Ethereum tends to post 3–5 week continuation rallies. Technical traders are eyeing the $2,850–$3,000 resistance next, a region that triggered sharp pullbacks in Q1 2023 and Q1 2025. A clean break above this range could open doors to retesting $3,400.
ETH Dominance Finds Macro Bottom
Ethereum dominance rebounded to 9.05% after bottoming twice near 7.08%, a level last seen during the 2020 DeFi summer. Historically, ETH dominance has reversed sharply after touching this cycle base. The latest move mirrors past trend reversals when capital rotated from BTC into large caps.
Source: X
Breaking the 10% dominance barrier would confirm strength against Bitcoin and signal early altcoin momentum. Price and dominance bottoming simultaneously is rare, but occurred in early 2020 and again in July 2022, both of which preceded 40 %+ ETH rallies within weeks.
Open Interest Hits Record High
Ethereum open interest surged to 7.1 million ETH in May, the highest level ever recorded. This rise in derivatives exposure comes as spot price consolidates just below the $3,000 barrier. High OI with flat price signals latent strength rather than speculative froth.
Source: X
Previous OI spikes like this in early 2021 and mid-2022 directly preceded breakout moves. Traders appear to be placing high-conviction directional bets, with minimal signs of overleveraging. Combined with neutral funding rates, the data suggests growing long-term positioning rather than short-term volatility. The price-to-OI correlation remains bullish. As ETH continues to hold above the 50-week moving average, the record OI hints at a potential squeeze higher if $2,850 breaks.
