- DOGE remains mid-channel within its long-term third wave, awaiting a confirmed breakout.
- Historical ascending structure shows rising highs/lows with key deviations shaping trend behavior.
- ETF activity and whale accumulation shifts highlight mixed sentiment during consolidation.
Dogecoin trades inside a long-term ascending structure and remains trapped within the third-wave deadlock. Current monthly data shows price holding inside the mid-range of the larger channel as the wave continues to form. Structure has not confirmed a breakout, and the market waits for completion of this stage. At the time of writing, Dogecoin traded near $0.1526.
DOGE Holds Mid-Channel Position Within the Third Wave
According to an analysis prepared by Ether Nasyonal, Dogecoin moves inside three historical ascending waves that started in 2014. The first wave developed inside the lower channel from 2014 to 2019. The second wave formed between 2019 and 2022 as price moved into a higher band. The current third wave began after the 2021 peak, and DOGE now trades inside the central region of the channel.
Monthly candles show tighter ranges while holding a series of higher lows that formed after the 2022 retracement. The chart displays rising highs and rising lows across all three waves, and the current structure maintains this behavior. The upper boundary remains the main resistance zone, while the mid-line acts as the short-term control level.
According to an observation by Trader Tardigrade, Dogecoin also shows clear upper and lower deviations inside the rising monthly channel. Upper deviations occurred in 2019, 2024 and 2025, while lower deviations appeared in 2020 and again in 2026. The chart records a strong upward move during late 2020 and early 2021 as price moved far above the channel.
Market Activity and ETF Developments
The Grayscale GDOG ETF recorded $1.41 million in first-day volume but no net inflows. Analyst Eric Balchunas noted that he expected up to $12 million. Bitwise announced that its own Dogecoin ETF, BWOW, will begin trading today.
Wallet behavior shows mixed movement among large holders. On-chain data indicates that wallets holding 10 million to 100 million DOGE reduced their balances by around 7 billion coins during DOGE’s decline from $0.27 to $0.143.
Wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion DOGE added around 4.72 billion coins during the same period. DOGE remains inside the third-wave consolidation zone, and the breakout that follows will define the direction and strength of the next major trend.
