- Bitcoin’s extreme correlation from the S&P 500 historically aligns with major rallies, setting up a bullish macro environment now.
- CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin’s resilience above $85,000 in April 2025 amid a strong positive correlation with traditional markets.
- Periods of sharp Bitcoin-S&P 500 decorrelation, like July 2024 and March 2025, have consistently preceded strong Bitcoin price surges.
Bitcoin’s 12-month correlation with the S&P 500 reveals a critical setup for its next major move. According to CryptoQuant data, sharp decorrelation periods historically align with massive Bitcoin rallies. Currently, in April 2025, Bitcoin shows a similar pattern, suggesting strong potential for another bullish breakout. The latest chart tracks Bitcoin’s price action, the S&P 500’s performance, and their correlation coefficient from May 2024 to April 2025. The data highlights a perfect storm forming for Bitcoin investors.
Bitcoin’s Price Journey and Major Market Moves
Bitcoin started around $65,000 in May 2024. It then surged to over $105,000 by the end of May. However, it quickly corrected to $90,000 by June. Besides, the decline continued into August 2024, bottoming at $52,000. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 began near 5,000 points. It steadily climbed to approximately 5,700 by April 2025. However, it faced notable dips in August 2024 and again in March 2025.
Bitcoin recovered after the August lows. It moved upwards to break past $100,000 by December 2024. Additionally, a February 2025 correction dragged Bitcoin back under $80,000. However, it bounced back to stabilize above $85,000 by April. Consequently, the S&P 500 also saw a sharp climb to 6,000 points early in 2025. However, it dipped below 5,500 in March before recovering slightly.
Decorrelation Trends Mark Bullish Signals
The correlation coefficient paints a clearer picture of market dynamics. Strong positive correlation, between 0.5 and 0.7, dominated May 2024 and October to December 2024. Moreover, March to April 2025 also shows strong positive correlation values.
However, a negative correlation emerged during July-August 2024 and briefly in March 2025. Bitcoin declined while the S&P 500 climbed during those phases. The purple shaded area sharply dipped to -0.5 during those key periods. Bitcoin rallies often followed extreme decorrelation events. Hence, July-August 2024 and February-March 2025 were crucial transition points.
By April 2025, correlation returned to approximately 0.6. There were indications of a coordinated comeback between Bitcoin and the S&P 500. Furthermore, Bitcoin has shown resilience in the face of wider market swings by remaining stable above $85,000.
