- Strong October jobs and inflation data pushed markets to price a 25-basis-point December Fed rate hike, increasing pressure on Bitcoin.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.44 billion in outflows over five sessions, while stablecoin supply contracted by $11.5 billion in 30 days.
- Coinbase warned that sustained weakness below 73,000–75,000 could expose Bitcoin to 66,000–68,000, with 80,000–82,000 as major resistance.
Bitcoin’s decline below $73,000 reflects rising Federal Reserve rate expectations rather than the recent Binance hack, according to Coinbase Institutional. Its latest weekly report links the sell-off to stronger October economic data, shrinking stablecoin supply, and sustained ETF withdrawals. The firm warned that continued weakness below $73,000 could expose Bitcoin to 66,000-68,000.
Strong Economic Data Raises Rate Expectations
October nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, exceeding forecasts of 65,000. August and September figures also received upward revisions totaling 84,000. Meanwhile, unemployment fell to 4.1%, against expectations of 4.2%.
October headline CPI rose 0.4% monthly, while core inflation increased 0.3%. Both readings exceeded consensus estimates by 0.1 percentage point. Consequently, futures markets fully priced a 25-basis-point December rate hike.
They also priced approximately 64 basis points of increases over 12 months, up from 37 earlier. Bitcoin subsequently fell below $72,000 on November 12. Coinbase also cited a stronger dollar, geopolitical tensions, and weaker expectations for crypto legislation.
ETF Withdrawals and Stablecoin Supply Add Pressure
Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.44 billion in net outflows across five trading sessions through November 11. BlackRock’s IBIT extended its withdrawal streak to nine consecutive sessions.
Coinbase estimates ETF holders collectively face approximately $12.7 billion in unrealized losses. Their average purchase price stands near $81,300, roughly 12% above current prices. Stablecoin supply also contracted by $11.5 billion over 30 days, marking its largest recorded decline.
For comparison, approximately $9.2 billion exited after TerraUSD collapsed in May 2022. Additionally, Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium averaged negative 0.13% over the past week, indicating weaker buying demand from U.S. investors.
Bitcoin’s $73K Support Faces Another Test
Coinbase identified 73,000-75,000 as a critical recovery zone, including the 200-day moving average near $73,100. Remaining below this range increases the likelihood of a decline toward 66,000-68,000.
That lower zone contains significant Bitcoin supply, cost-basis support, and the 200-week moving average. Coinbase also identified 80,000-82,000 as major resistance. Separately, Strategy’s average Bitcoin purchase cost stands near $75,500. MSCI confirmed the company’s removal from its global indexes after November 30’s close.
