- Circle Research says quantum attacks could break ECDSA and RSA by 2030, forcing blockchains to adopt post-quantum signatures.
- Developers are testing post-quantum TLS, validator signatures, and larger keys as regulators push upgrades in the U.S. and EU.
- Wallets, addresses, and ZK systems must migrate before “Q-Day” to avoid exposure, with major changes needed across networks.
Experts warn that quantum computers may compromise blockchain security by 2030, according to Circle Research. Cryptographic protocols using elliptic curves or RSA are vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm, while hash functions like SHA256 and symmetric encryption such as AES remain secure. Regulators in the U.S. and EU require critical systems to adopt post-quantum algorithms within the next decade.
Securing Networks and Transaction Signatures
Post-quantum TLS protocols, including X25519MLKEM768, are gaining adoption among major providers such as Google and AWS. Developers must upgrade TLS certificates and store larger public keys to protect network connections.
Proof-of-Stake blockchains will need post-quantum signature schemes for validators, with Ethereum exploring XMSS multi-signatures and Poseidon2 hashing. For transaction signatures, blockchains must move away from short ECDSA and Ed25519 keys to larger post-quantum signatures.
Options include NIST ML-DSA (2,420 bytes), Ethereum’s Falcon (666 bytes), and Aptos’ SLH-DSA-SHA2-128s (7,856 bytes). Developers are testing optimizations like pairing ML-DSA with BLAKE3 to support HSM wallets and multi-signature setups.
Wallets, Addresses, and Smart Contracts
Post-quantum HSM wallets are beginning to appear, with cloud services offering software KMS solutions. Blockchain-specific HSMs will follow once demand rises. Threshold signature protocols and MPC wallets currently relying on elliptic curves will need replacement.
Smart contract wallets could allow holders to choose post-quantum signatures, though trust issues remain. Active crypto addresses must migrate before Q-Day to prevent exposure risks. Passive addresses may recover post-quantum by proving knowledge of their seed.
Migration could require 76 days of continuous processing for all Bitcoin UTXOs. Zero-knowledge systems like Groth16, Halo2, and PlonK must also upgrade to STARK, SNARG, or FRI systems to maintain security against quantum attacks.
