- Bitcoin’s steady 200WMA trend suggests long-term growth with reduced volatility, challenging traditional four-year cycles.
- Past Bitcoin price swings show resilience, often bouncing back from major dips and aligning with its 200-week moving average.
- PlanB argues a true bear market follows a strong bull run, and Bitcoin’s stable 200WMA means a major rally may still be ahead.
PlanB, a well-known Bitcoin expert, disagrees with the bear market predictions of several analysts. His most recent observations indicate that for more than a year, Bitcoin’s 200-week geometric and arithmetic means have stayed near.
This steadiness points to a prolonged upward trend and less volatility. Bitcoin doubled from $20,000 to $40,000 in 2023 and then from $40,000 to $80,000 in 2024. This scenario challenges the traditional four-year cycle and indicates a more mature market structure.
Bitcoin’s 200-Week Moving Average
Bitcoin’s price has historically stayed above the arithmetic mean, except during major corrections. The 200WMA’s arithmetic mean (black line) reflects steady growth, while the geometric mean (gray line) follows a similar upward trend.
Past data are looked upon to see approximate price variations of Bitcoin. It had crossed $1,000 in 2013, while by early 2015 it had fallen below $200. An upswing followed, making it $20,000 in 2017, with further drops of about $3,000 in 2018. Bitcoin had hit $60,000 during the 2020 bull run, eventually falling below $20,000 during 2022. These cycles indicate that the asset’s long-term upward trend is well supported at the 200WMA.
Impact of Halving Cycles
Bitcoin’s halvings play a role in its price action. The color-coded chart highlights peaks occurring near halving events. Red and orange colors signal price surges, while blue and green indicate accumulation phases. Historically, price peaks align with halvings, followed by corrections before resuming an upward trend.
Moreover, PlanB emphasizes that a real bear market occurs only after a real bull market. Since Bitcoin has yet to see a diverging arithmetic and geometric mean, no bull market has occurred. This insight challenges conventional market expectations and supports the steady uptrend hypothesis.
