- Bitcoin’s STH MVRV at 0.85 signals deep undervaluation, historically marking accumulation zones and potential price reversals.
- Market trends show Bitcoin’s price rebounds whenever STH MVRV nears its lower boundary, hinting at a possible local bottom.
- Despite uncertainty, increased short-term holder accumulation suggests Bitcoin’s correction phase may be ending.
According to analyst Axel’s analysis, Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has fallen to approximately 0.85. This indicates that short-term investors are holding losses of around 15%. Historically, such low levels have signaled the end of a correction phase.
Consequently, this zone often marks the start of accumulation. The current STH MVRV sits below the “mean – 1 standard deviation” boundary of 0.90. This deep-undervaluation region has previously coincided with market bottoms, as seen in August and September 2024.
Bitcoin’s Market Trends and STH MVRV Correlation
Bitcoin’s price correlated with the STH MVRV ratio over time. From mid-2023 to late 2023, Bitcoin faced declines before rebounding in early 2024. This period saw sharp fluctuations in the STH MVRV ratio. Whenever STH MVRV approached the lower boundary, Bitcoin’s price followed with a reversal. Moreover, the “mean + 1 standard deviation” level consistently acted as resistance, preventing further price surges.
Currently, Bitcoin’s price decline aligns with a drop in the STH MVRV ratio. The pink line on the chart, representing “mean – 1 standard deviation,” has acted as support. Historically, whenever the STH MVRV reached this support, Bitcoin’s price began a recovery. Midway through 2023, late in 2024, and early in 2025, the same pattern appeared. Bitcoin might be close to a local bottom, according to the recent statistics, which might pave the way for a recovery.
Macroeconomic Impact on Market Sentiment
Despite bullish technical indicators, the ongoing tariff war and global economic instability add to market hesitations. However, on-chain data suggests that short-term holders have begun accumulating. This is evident from today’s increased buying volume. Additionally, past instances of STH MVRV dipping below –1 standard deviation have led to strong rebounds.
Hence, while external factors contribute to short-term volatility, the technical outlook signals the potential end of Bitcoin’s correction phase. A fresh period of Bitcoin accumulation may soon begin if past patterns continue. The MVRV ratio is an important metric for investors keeping a watch on on-chain data. Traders may therefore expect a price recovery as accumulation picks up steam.
