- Bitcoin’s short-term holder volatility is rising, often a precursor to major price swings similar to past bull cycle setups.
- BTC dominance hits 64.22%, testing a key resistance level not breached since 2017, which may trigger capital rotation into altcoins.
- Historical balance spikes and current macro tailwinds suggest an altseason could be forming as the market structure shifts.
Bitcoin’s recent surge in short-term holder activity is fueling speculation of a renewed upward momentum. Data shared by CryptoBusy highlights a dramatic increase in short-term balance fluctuations. These changes align with price levels nearing $100,000 before a notable downturn. The wave-like visual in the chart underscores synchronized movement across various timeframes.
Source: CryptoBusy
Notably, the pink band (1-hour) shows the most volatile swings, reinforcing Bitcoin’s intensified short-term trading activity. This behavior often signals preparation for sharp market moves, either upward or downward. The recent red arrow at the end of the chart could point to a major pullback before the next leg higher.
The 2017 and 2021 bull cycles mirrored similar balance spikes before Bitcoin rallied to new highs. Between 2020 and 2021, price and balance volatility peaked together. This suggests that high-frequency balance movements often precede parabolic moves.
Moreover, recent patterns from 2023 to 2025 are echoing this historical behavior. Although a brief drop occurred, overall volatility continues to rise, hinting at further expansion. These overlapping waves across short-term timeframes may indicate increased trader coordination ahead of another major push.
Bitcoin Dominance Hits Historic Resistance
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market dominance has reached a key resistance level not breached since 2017. According to Niels, BTC dominance now sits at 64.22%. This area coincides with the same downtrend resistance level that capped dominance in previous cycles. Historical patterns show dominance rising ahead of major corrections, then dropping as altcoins rally. The 2017 and 2021 charts reinforce this pattern clearly. Hence, if history repeats, a pullback in BTC dominance may soon follow.
Source: Niels
Additionally, a large descending channel highlights how BTC dominance has stayed within defined boundaries. Currently, dominance is pressing against the upper boundary. A symmetrical triangle pattern has also formed, indicating consolidation. However, the structure suggests a breakout could be imminent. Significantly, global conditions are turning risk-on. With upcoming rate cuts, quantitative easing, and favorable regulations expected, capital may soon rotate into altcoins.
Altseason Could Be Around the Corner
Despite the bearish sentiment toward altcoins, the technicals tell a different story. The market is transitioning. A pullback in BTC dominance paired with bullish altcoin setups could ignite a new altseason. Consequently, traders should closely monitor dominance resistance and macroeconomic developments. Together, these signals may offer a perfect setup for high-risk, high-reward plays in the coming months.
