- Short term Bitcoin holdings surged to 4.94M BTC, indicating growing activity from new investors.
- Analyst Axel notes 99.4% of Bitcoin supply is in profit as derivatives selling pressure eases.
- Net taker volume turned neutral from negative $400M, indicating balanced trading and steady market sentiment.
Short term Bitcoin investors are returning in large numbers, on chain data shows a sharp increase in holdings. According to analyst Axel, the total supply held by short term holders (STH) has grown by roughly 559,000 BTC since May 2025.
This rise took holdings from a low of 4.38 million BTC to nearly 4.94 million BTC by October. The surge comes as Bitcoin trades steadily at $122,000, indicating renewed speculative activity and accumulation from newer market participants.
Surge in Short Term Holdings
The data shows a strong recovery in short term holder supply after last year’s sharp contraction. Notably, such increases often occur during phases of expanding market activity, when new investors buy into upward momentum. Historical trends show that STH supply tends to rise near local market highs, while steep declines have previously aligned with correction periods.
However, Axel noted that the current increase appears different from earlier cycles, as Bitcoin’s price stability suggests that profit taking has been well absorbed by fresh demand. The steady growth of STH supply during this phase implies that speculative interest remains elevated, with investors positioning for potential upside continuation.
Profitability Near Record Levels
Almost the entire Bitcoin market is currently profitable. Axel reported that 99.4% of the total Bitcoin supply is now in profit, indicating strong sentiment across the market. The analyst also noted a sharp change in derivatives market behavior. The net taker volume, which tracks the balance between buy and sell orders, has changed from deeply negative to neutral.
This transition is a clear reduction in selling pressure that dominated earlier in the year. During August, the monthly average net taker volume was near negative $400 million, indicating heavy sell side activity. It has now normalized, pointing to a healthier balance between buyers and sellers.
Neutral Derivative Flows
According to Axel, similar conditions appeared during Bitcoin’s April correction, preceding a period of solid price recovery. When derivatives selling pressure eases while spot demand rises, Bitcoin tends to find structural support at higher levels.Axel referenced the STH realized profit (RP) target at $133,000. This benchmark provides a potential medium term indicator of where the market could begin realizing gains if current accumulation continues. The overall setup, with expanding STH holdings and balanced derivative activity, indicates a market regaining confidence amid steady institutional and retail participation.
