- Retail demand remains weak, suggesting Bitcoin’s current rally is fueled by large investors, not small buyers.
- Spot trading growth slowed, while perpetual futures surged 29%, showing derivative markets lead 2025’s expansion.
- Binance dominates trading, reserves, and on-chain flows, concentrating liquidity and influence at the top exchanges.
Bitcoin’s recent price surge is raising alarms among analysts, as retail participation remains unusually weak. According to CryptoQuant and IT Tech, small buyers transferring $0–$10K are largely absent. Historically, strong green spikes in retail demand have fueled major bullish legs. However, now this metric is deeply negative, even while Bitcoin trades near the top of its range. Hence, the current rally appears driven primarily by larger players, suggesting upside may be fragile.
Retail absence points to a late-cycle phase rather than a clean new impulse. As IT Tech notes, “until this retail demand curve gets back above zero, I treat this as a cautious, late-cycle phase, not a clean new impulse.” Consequently, analysts warn pullbacks could hit harder if small buyers remain sidelined. This dynamic may indicate heightened risk for retail investors chasing momentum without market depth.
Spot and Futures Volumes Reveal Divergence
Crypto trading volumes closed 2025 showing contrasting trends. Total spot trading reached $18.6 trillion, a 9% increase from 2024’s $17 trillion. However, growth slowed dramatically compared to 2024, when spot volume surged 154%.
Perpetual futures, on the other hand, increased by 29% to reach $61.7 trillion, indicating that derivative markets were the primary source of growth. Additionally, Binance dominated the volumes of spot and perpetual futures. Binance made up 41% of the top 10 exchanges with $7 trillion in spot trading. Following with $1.5T, $1.4T, and $1.3T, respectively, were Bybit, MEXC, and Crypto.com. As a result, trading power is becoming more concentrated among the top platforms.
Binance also led Bitcoin perpetual futures with $25.4 trillion in volume, representing 42% of the top 10 exchanges. OKX, Bybit, and Bitget captured 11–19% each, while smaller exchanges trailed. Additionally, Hyperliquid emerged with $2.2 trillion, but collectively remaining platforms accounted for only 10% of total volume. Consequently, liquidity and market influence continue consolidating at the top.
Stablecoins and On-Chain Flows Mirror Exchange Dominance
With $47.6 billion in USDT and USDC reserves, Binance accounted for 72% of the stablecoin balances of the top 10 exchanges. MEXC came in second with $2.2 billion, and OKX with $9.3 billion. Binance’s total reserves of BTC, ETH, USDT, and USDC were $117 billion, whereas Coinbase’s was $81 billion.
This supremacy is confirmed by on-chain activity, as Binance has recorded over 1.6 million cryptocurrency transactions. With 1.2 million, largely withdrawals, Coinbase came next. As a result, a small number of significant exchanges continue to have a significant influence on the market.
