- Bitcoin bounced off $74K–$76K support as volume and structure align for a breakout
- $83K marks resistance; a breakout could drive fast gains toward the Q1 open
- U.S. reserve ratio stays flat, signaling a pause before possible bullish continuation
Bitcoin bounced from critical support at $76,000, rising above $80,000 as reserve flows and technical levels guide momentum. Price remains under quarterly opens, with U.S. entities steadily accumulating during the correction.
Confluence Zone Triggers Break Above $80K
Bitcoin reversed sharply after testing the $74K to $76K support range, a zone with Fibonacci, demand, and historical volume. The bounce pushed the price above $80K, renewing upward pressure into the key range.
Emperor noted filled longs and profit-taking near $80K after bouncing from $74K–$76K support. He defined this as a high-confluence zone with Fibonacci, demand, and volume alignment. The $80K–$81K range is now resistance, aligning with the previous range low. Emperor flagged $82,575 and $93,548 as key opens with thin volume between them.
Source: Emperor
He expects a range below Q2, bearish sentiment, then a reclaim and rally to $93K–$ 94 K. His target to exit longs opened in the low $ 70 Ks lies near the Q1 open. An inverse head and shoulders near $76K supports a breakout if the neckline fails.
Volume Profile Maps Short-Term Range
The volume profile reveals tight consolidation between $78K and $83K, defining a short-term price structure. This band holds historical trading activity, acting as dynamic support and resistance. Price pivots inside this range as volume density contains momentum.
A gray-shaded cluster near $80K marks previous accumulation and resistance buildup. A blue line at $83K marks range highs, while $78K anchors the base level. Between $83K and $93K sits a low-volume pocket, offering fast movement potential.
He named this gap “Extremes between major High Volume Nodes” and noted the breakout risk.
If price breaks $83K, momentum could accelerate due to a lack of resistance. He marked $76K again as a strong weekly level supporting the recent bounce.
Reserve Ratio Aligns with Price Trends
CryptoELITES shared a reserve ratio comparing U.S. to global Bitcoin holdings from March 2024 to April 2025. The ratio tracked Bitcoin price tops in May 2024 and March 2025, both followed by declines. A local bottom in October 2024 saw both price and ratio rise from $60K to $ 105 K.
Source: CryptoELITES
A yellow box outlines current consolidation at $82.1K with reserves flat and no major changes. The ratio remains stable, indicating a pause in institutional reallocation or accumulation. This flat trend limits directional bias for the short term.
CryptoELITES uses EMA(20) and EMA(50) to assess momentum and trend strength. In prior rallies, the ratio broke above both indicators before price surged. Now it trades just below both, suggesting possible accumulation before a breakout.
