- Bitcoin’s profitability risk has dropped, signaling potential for further gains if market liquidity remains supportive.
- Onchain metrics show Bitcoin’s risk levels are low, mirroring past accumulation phases before major price surges.
- Liquidity contraction poses a risk, but Bitcoin’s upward trend aligns with historical patterns of low-risk accumulation phases.
Bitcoin’s profitability risk has decreased, indicating a possible change in market dynamics, according to expert Jamie. After reaching extremes in 2024, onchain indicators that aid in identifying peaks and bottoms, such as MVRV, have subsequently rolled over. Consequently, analysts debate whether Bitcoin peaked in Q4 2024 or if liquidity conditions will drive further gains.
Profitability Metrics and Market Trends
Bitcoin’s Network Profitability Risk Score provides insight into its profitability cycles. The white line in the chart represents Bitcoin’s USD price, while colored areas indicate risk levels. Green signifies low-risk periods, and red denotes heightened risk.
Bitcoin rose above $20,000 in 2017–2018 before plunging below $4,000 in late 2018. Risk levels declined, indicating a decrease in concerns about profitability. Bitcoin recovered to above $10,000 by 2019, however risk ratings varied.
In 2020, Bitcoin recovered from pandemic lows to reach $60,000 in early 2021. Profitability risk skyrocketed, with red zones dominating. In mid-2021, prices fell below $30,000 before another rally to $69,000. Risk score rose dramatically as Bitcoin declined through 2022 below $20,000.
Throughout 2023, Bitcoin steadily climbed past previous highs, with mixed risk levels. By 2024, new all-time highs were reached, but short-term risk spikes emerged. As of March 25, 2025, Bitcoin trades at $87,972, with a risk score of -1.18, indicating lower profitability concerns.
Liquidity Conditions and Bitcoin’s Trajectory
Every market cycle is unique. Currently, the U.S. administration is focused on deficit reduction, creating uncertainty. China and Europe must compensate for potential Treasury and Fed constraints. A global liquidity overlay provides crucial context, revealing an ongoing liquidity contraction—the longest since the Global Financial Crisis.
The latest chart tracks Bitcoin’s price alongside the Global Liquidity Index (GLI) and Network Profitability Risk Score. The orange line represents Bitcoin’s price at $88,162, while the white line measures liquidity, standing at 134.226T. Bitcoin historically follows liquidity trends, reinforcing its dependence on macroeconomic conditions.
Periods of high risk align with Bitcoin’s peaks, while green zones indicate accumulation phases. Currently, Bitcoin follows an upward trajectory with reduced profitability concerns. Historical patterns suggest major corrections occur alongside liquidity contractions and heightened risk scores.
